Patrick’s Forecast: Coastal storm may become tropical storm soon

Posted at 3:21 PM, May 06, 2015
and last updated 2015-05-06 15:51:52-04

Get VIPIR Ready. A tropical storm may develop soon. A disorganized cluster of thunderstorms off the Florida Atlantic coast is expected to become better organized over the next few days and head toward the Carolina coast. It could intensify into our first tropical storm of the season Thursday or Friday.

The major forecast models have been coming into some general agreement that the storm will move into the area between Myrtle Beach, SC and Wilmington, NC by early on Saturday morning. On that path, we might see a few bands of showers and storms from time to time, but it wouldn't have a major impact on our weekend. Eventually, an approaching cold front would pick up the remnants of the storm and spread them into Virginia. That could bring us showers and storms early in the work week.

So what does that mean for the weekend? I don't think either day will be a washout. I'm giving Saturday a 25% chance for showers and storms, along with a 20% chance for Mother's Day. Obviously, that's highly subject to change.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the east coast of Florida across the Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters are associated with an upper-level trough and a weak surface low located north of the northwestern Bahamas. Conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the next day or so while this system moves slowly northward and then northwestward. A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by tomorrow or Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible over portions of the coastal southeastern United States beginning tomorrow.

Weather & Health for Thursday
Pollen: Moderate-High (Oak, Birch, Sweet Gum)
UV Index: Very High
Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
Mosquitoes: Low-Moderate

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)
1989 Severe Weather Outbreak: East Central, Coastal VA
2007 Coastal Storm. Peak Wind 40-53 MPH. Salisbury MD, Norfolk, VA, Elizabeth City, NC. High Surf along all coasts.

Patrick Rockey
NewsChannel 3 Chief Meteorologist

Join me on Facebook HERE.
Follow me on Twitter HERE.
Check Interactive Radar here: