Tuesday’s First Warning Forecast: Hurricane Matthew aiming at East Coast

Posted at 5:35 AM, Oct 04, 2016
and last updated 2016-10-04 11:20:48-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

Hurricane Matthew aiming at East Coast… Hurricane Matthew is near Haiti and moving north toward eastern Cuba. Matthew will continue moving generally north over the Bahamas and near the Florida Atlantic coast. Matthew will be closest to us this weekend. The exact track of Matthew will determine exactly what we will see but expect impacts from Matthew this weekend.

Expect a nice mix of sun and clouds today with isolated showers possible. Rain will generally be light and very hit or miss. Highs today will reach the mid 70s, near normal. Winds will start to ramp up today. Expect NE winds at 10 to 15 mph with gust to 25 possible.

We will see a mix of sun and clouds with isolated showers possible through midweek. Highs will stay in the low to mid 70s. Winds will ramp up for midweek. Strong NE winds with gusts to near 30 mph are possible. The persistent NE winds will bring us tidal flooding for most of the week. “Nuisance” level flooding is expected near midday high tide today.

Hurricane Matthew impacts

Here is an early look at what to expect this weekend as Matthew moves up the southeast coast…

(Note: Expect this forecast to be fine-tuned and adjusted as Matthew gets closer)

  • Heavy rains (4-8 inches) from Matthew could cause moderate to significant flooding. An already saturated ground will amplify the effects.
  • The exact path will determine the max winds. As of now, expect at least tropical storm strength winds with the potential for hurricane strength.
  • Saturated ground coupled with strong winds will increase our potential for falling trees and resulting power outages.
  • Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge are highly dependent on the track and intensity, but moderate to significant coastal flooding is possible in Hampton Roads and NE NC.

Today: Partly Sunny, Isolated showers (20%), Breezy. Highs in the mid 70. Winds: NE 5-15G25

Tonight: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Showers (20%), Breezy. Lows in the mid 60s. Winds: NE 10-15G20

Tomorrow: Partly Sunny, Isolated Showers (20%), Windy. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: NE 10-20G30

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Moderate (Ragweed, Sagebrush)

UV Index: 5 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Very High

Tropical Update

Hurricane Matthew is moving toward eastern Cuba. Matthew is centered about 35 miles NNE of Tiburon, Haiti and 90 miles south of eastern Cuba and is moving north at 10 mph. On this track the eye of Matthew will move over the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba today. A turn toward the NNW is expected by Wednesday, followed by a NW turn Wednesday night. Matthew is expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Matthew will approach the Atlantic coast of Florida on Thursday then move up the East Coast Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 4

Location: 18.9°N 74.3°W

Moving: N at 10 mph

Min pressure: 950 mb

Max sustained: 145 mph

Tropical Storm Nicole forms in the Atlantic. Nicole is centered about 525 miles NE of San Juan, Puerto Rico and moving NW at 8 mph. A turn toward the NNW with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening.

11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 4

Location: 23.8°N 60.4°W

Moving: NW at 8 mph

Min pressure: 1005 mb

Max sustained: 50 mph

Hurricane Tracker


Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

October 4th

1911 River Flooding James-Appomattox Basin

2013 Coastal Flooding Oct 4 -15 as Low Pressure sits over Mid-Atlantic. Moderate flooding

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