Wednesday’s First Warning Forecast: Windy and flooding, then Matthew

Posted at 6:18 AM, Oct 05, 2016
and last updated 2016-10-05 11:16:17-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

Windy with tidal flooding today, then Hurricane Matthew… Expect mostly cloudy skies today with isolated showers. Rain will generally be light and very hit or miss. Highs today will reach the low 70s.

Expect NE winds at 10 to 20 mph with gust to 30 possible. The strong NE winds will trigger “minor” tidal flooding during the few hours surrounding high tide in the early afternoon.

We will see a mix of sun and clouds with isolated showers possible on Thursday. Highs will reach the mid 70s. Strong NE winds will continue and “minor” to “nuisance” tidal flooding is possible. Rain from Hurricane Matthew will start to build up the East Coast on Friday and will reach Hampton Roads and Eastern NC on Saturday.

Hurricane Matthew is north of eastern Cuba and will begin moving NW over the Bahamas today. Matthew will approach the Florida Atlantic coast tomorrow and move up the Atlantic Coast Friday through the weekend. Matthew is expected to move south of Cape Hatteras Sunday morning.

 Hurricane Matthew impacts

Here is a look at what to expect this weekend as Matthew moves up the southeast coast…

(Note: Expect this forecast to be fine-tuned and adjusted as Matthew gets closer)

  • Rainfall (2-4 inches) from Matthew could cause localized flooding. Expect higher rainfall totals to the SE and lower totals to the NW.
  • The exact path will determine the max winds. As of now, expect tropical storm strength winds (40+ mph) for most of coastal VA and eastern NC. We will see a general trend of stronger winds to the SE and less strong winds to the NW.
  • Saturated ground coupled with strong winds will increase our potential for falling trees and resulting power outages.
  • Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge are highly dependent on the track and intensity, but minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible in Hampton Roads and NE NC.

Today: Mostly Cloudy, Isolated Showers (20%), Windy. Highs in the low 70s. Winds: NE 10-20G30

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Isolated Showers (20%), Windy. Lows in the mid 60s. Winds: NE 10-20G25

Tomorrow: Partly Sunny, Isolated Showers (20%), Windy. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: NE 10-20G25

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Moderate (Ragweed, Sagebrush)

UV Index: 4 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Very High

Tropical Update

Hurricane Matthew moving toward the central and northwestern Bahamas. Matthew is centered about 55 miles NNE of Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba or 105 miles south of Long Island, Bahamas and is moving NW at 12 mph. The NW motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening. Matthew will then track north along the Florida coast on Friday and along the Carolina coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3 or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. An unconfirmed wind gust of 155 mph was reported in Baracoa, Cuba, last night as the eye of Matthew passed nearby.

11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 5

Location: 21.8°N 75.2°W

Moving: NW at 12 mph

Min pressure: 962 mb

Max sustained: 120 mph

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered about 500 miles NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico and moving WNW at 8 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today. A turn toward the north and northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tracker


Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

October 5th

1962 Flash Flooding: Wicomico Co

1995 2 F0 Tornadoes: Isle of Wight Co, F1 Tornado: King & Queen Co

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