First Warning Forecast: Windy with tidal flooding, even before Matthew approaches

Posted at 2:10 PM, Oct 05, 2016
and last updated 2016-10-06 08:06:44-04

Windy with tidal flooding, even before Matthew approaches....As we move through this Wednesday evening, it's going to be a windy one out there. Winds will blow in from the northeast between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts to 25 and 30 mph, which will likely create some nuisance-to-minor tidal flooding around high tide late tonight. Otherwise, we'll see mostly cloudy skies with a stray shower. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

More tidal flooding will be possible on Thursday and Friday, all courtesy of an area of low pressure offshore along a stationary front. Yes, that's even before Matthew approaches. So, remember, around high tide, turn around, don't drown. We'll see flooding in the nuisance to minor categories. There will also be a chance of showers on both days. Otherwise, we'll see a good deal of clouds with highs in the mid 70s.

Then, here comes Hurricane Matthew....

Hurricane Matthew is north of eastern Cuba and will begin moving NW over the Bahamas today. Matthew will approach the Florida Atlantic coast tomorrow and move up the Atlantic Coast Friday through the weekend. Matthew is expected to move south of Cape Hatteras Sunday morning.

 Hurricane Matthew impacts

Here is a look at what to expect this weekend as Matthew moves up the southeast coast…

(Note: Expect this forecast to be fine-tuned and adjusted as Matthew gets closer)

  • Rainfall (2-4 inches) from Matthew could cause localized flooding. Expect higher rainfall totals to the SE and lower totals to the NW.
  • The exact path will determine the max winds. As of now, expect tropical storm strength winds (40+ mph) for most of coastal VA and eastern NC. We will see a general trend of stronger winds to the SE and less strong winds to the NW.
  • Saturated ground coupled with strong winds will increase our potential for falling trees and resulting power outages.
  • Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge are highly dependent on the track and intensity, but minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible in Hampton Roads and NE NC.

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Isolated Showers (20%). Windy. Lows in the mid 60s. Winds: NE 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph.

Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers (30%). Windy. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: NE 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers (30%). Windy. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: NE 10-20 mph, gusts to 25 mph.

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Moderate (Ragweed, Sagebrush)

UV Index: 4 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Very High

Tropical Update

5:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 5
Location: 22.5°N 75.7°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

Hurricane Matthew is moving toward the central and northwestern Bahamas. Matthew is centered about 205 miles SSE of Nassau or 400 miles SE of West Palm Beach, Florida, and is moving NW at 12 mph. The NW motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday night. Matthew will then track north along the Florida coast on Friday and along or near the Carolina coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3 or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 5
Location: 25.3°N 63.5°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered about 490 miles south of Bermuda and moving WNW at 8 mph. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected through Thursday. A slower meandering motion is forecast Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Hurricane Tracker


Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

1962 Flash Flooding: Wicomico Co

1995 2 F0 Tornadoes: Isle of Wight Co, F1 Tornado: King & Queen Co

Dominic Brown

First Warning Meteorologist

WTKR-TV News 3

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