Thursday’s First Warning Forecast: Matthew’s impacts for the weekend

Posted at 6:27 AM, Oct 06, 2016
and last updated 2016-10-06 11:15:53-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

Windy with tidal flooding today, then Hurricane Matthew… Expect mostly cloudy skies today with scattered showers. Rain will generally be light with a better chance for heavy rain in NC. Highs today will reach the low to mid 70s. Expect NE winds at 10 to 20 mph with gust to 25 possible. The strong NE winds will trigger “minor” tidal flooding again during the few hours surrounding high tide in the early afternoon.

Expect mostly cloudy skies and a slightly better chance for showers on Friday. Highs will reach the mid 70s. Strong NE winds will continue and “nuisance” level tidal flooding is possible. Rain from Hurricane Matthew will start to build up the East Coast on Friday and will reach Hampton Roads and Eastern NC Saturday and into Sunday.

Hurricane Matthew is moving through the Bahamas today. Matthew will approach the Florida Atlantic coast tonight and move up the Atlantic Coast of Florida to South Carolina Friday and Saturday. Matthew is expected to make an east to southeast turn off of the South Carolina coast Sunday and into Monday.


Hurricane Matthew impacts

Here is a look at what to expect this weekend as Matthew moves up the southeast coast…

(Note: This forecast to be fine-tuned and adjusted as Matthew gets closer)

  • Expect overall rainfall totals of 2-4 inches from Matthew with localize higher totals possible. Expect higher rainfall totals to the SE and lower totals to the NW. Most of the rain will fall Saturday and will taper off by midday Sunday.
  • Expect near tropical storm strength winds (40+ mph) for the southern Outer Banks. Hampton Roads and most of NE NC will experience strong winds but below TS strength. The strongest winds will be on Sunday.
  • Our saturated ground coupled with more rain and strong winds will increase our potential for falling trees and resulting power outages.
  • Minor to moderate coastal and tidal flooding with storm surge are expected over the next several days and through the weekend. Waves will build through Saturday and will be highest on Sunday.

Today: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (30%), Windy. Highs in the low 70s. Winds: NE 10-20G25

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (30%), Windy. Lows in the mid 60s. Winds: NE 10-20G25

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (30%), Windy. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: NE 10-20

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Moderate (Ragweed, Sagebrush)

UV Index: 5 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Very High

Tropical Update

Hurricane Matthew has gained strength as it moves toward Florida. Matthew is centered about 25 miles WNW of Nassau, Bahamas or 180 miles SE of West Palm Beach, Florida and is moving NW at 14 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the NNW tonight or early Friday. On the forecast track, Matthew should cross the northwestern Bahamas later today and move close to or over the east coast of the Florida through Friday night. Matthew will make a sharp east turn this weekend off of the South Carolina coast.

Reports form an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible, and Matthew should remain a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches the Florida coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.

11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 6

Location: 25.1°N 77.8°W

Moving: NW at 14 mph

Min pressure: 940 mb

Max sustained: 140 mph

Tropical Storm Nicole remains just under hurricane strength. Nicole is centered about 380 miles south of Bermuda and moving NW at 6 mph. A turn toward the NNW is expected later today. A slow and meandering motion is forecast tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with some weakening anticipated by Friday.

Hurricane Tracker


Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

October 6th

1957 Heavy Rain: 3.95″ Richmond

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