Friday’s First Warning Forecast: Hurricane Matthew moving up the East Coast

Posted at 5:53 AM, Oct 07, 2016

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

***A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Surf City to Duck, NC, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.***

Hurricane Matthew moving up the East Coast… Expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers again today. Highs will warm slightly into mid 70s. Strong east winds will continue and “nuisance” to “minor” level tidal flooding is expected near high tide this afternoon.

Hurricane Matthew is moving along the Florida Atlantic coast today as a category 3 storm. It will move along the Georgia coast tonight and South Carolina coast on Saturday. Matthew is expected to make a turn to the east, off of the South Carolina coast and south of Wilmington, NC on Sunday.

Rain from Matthew will build in from south to north on Saturday and will build out from west to east on Sunday. Our best chance for rain will be Saturday evening thought Sunday morning. Winds will crank up for Saturday night and through Sunday. Most areas will feel winds 20 to 30 with higher gusts possible.


Hurricane Matthew impacts

  • Expect 2”-4” inches of rainfall for most of Hampton Roads and 4”-6” for the southern Southside and Northeastern North Carolina with localized higher totals possible. The general trend will be higher rainfall totals to the SE and lower totals to the NW.
  • A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the Southside and most of NE NC from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.
  • Expect near tropical storm strength winds (40+ mph) for the Outer Banks. Hampton Roads and most of NE NC will experience winds at 20 to 30 mph with gust 40 to 45. The strongest winds will be on Sunday.
  • Our saturated ground coupled with more rain and strong winds will increase our potential for falling trees and resulting power outages.
  • With the rainfall and strong E/NE winds, we will see minor to moderate tidal flooding this weekend and into early next week. The highest tide levels will be on Sunday and Monday.
  • We could also see river flooding due to the rainfall and high water levels. The Cashie River in Bertie County is expected to reach moderate flood levels on Sunday and Monday.
  • Waves will build through Saturday and will be highest on Sunday and into Monday.

Today: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (30%), Windy. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: E 10-20

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (30%), Windy. Lows in the highs 60s. Winds: E 10-15

Tomorrow: Cloudy, Rain building in (90%), Windy. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: E/NE 10-20

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Moderate (Ragweed, Sagebrush)

UV Index: 5 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Very High

Tropical Update

***A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Surf City to Duck, NC, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.***

Hurricane Matthew moving parallel to the east coast of Florida. Matthew is centered about 35 miles ENE of Daytona Beach and 95 miles SE of Jacksonville. Matthew is moving NNW at 13 mph and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday. Matthew will move over or near Wilmington, NC by Sunday morning as it turns east.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the United States on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

11:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 7

Location: 29.4°N 80.5°W

Moving: NNW at 12 mph

Min pressure: 947 mb

Max sustained: 120 mph

Nicole weakens to a tropical storm. Nicole is stationary about 335 miles south of Bermuda. Nicole is expected to begin a slow southward or SSE motion later today and continue on Saturday. A westward drift could begin by early Sunday. Nicole will likely begin moving north early next week, toward Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly decreased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely during the next couple of days.

Hurricane Tracker


Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

October 7th

1965 F0 Tornado: Newport News

1996 Tropical Storm Josephine: 3-5″ rain Northeast NC, 7.2″ rain Currituck Co

2006 Record Rainfall and Flooding. 10 inches Newport News & James City. Flooding Franklin and US460 all from heavy rains

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