Monday’s First Warning Forecast: Rain, wind, and flooding from Hurricane Jose

Posted at 6:31 AM, Sep 18, 2017
and last updated 2017-09-18 11:35:24-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

***Coastal Flood Advisory for Dare County until midnight Tuesday night.***

***High Surf Advisory for Virginia Beach, Currituck, Dare, Accomack, and Northampton Monday and Tuesday. Tidal/coastal flooding with possible ocean overwash. Waves 6’ to 12’.***

Feeling the effects from Hurricane Jose… Hurricane Jose will slide north about 200 miles off of the coast of NC and VA today and tomorrow. The core of Jose will stay off of the coast but we will still feel some impacts in the form of rough surf, rip currents, coastal/tidal flooding, wind, and rain.

Expect mostly cloudy today and tomorrow with some sunshine mixing in at times. We will see scattered showers from Jose. Most of the rain will be near the coastline and most of the heavy rain will stay over the Atlantic. Winds will increase today into early tomorrow. North and northeast winds will gusts to near 40 mph along the coast tonight and early Tuesday. Minor tidal flooding is possible during times of high tide today and tomorrow. Rough surf will trigger areas of coastal flooding and potential ocean overwash for the Outer Banks. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to near 80 to start the week.

Rain will move out, clouds will clear, and winds will relax on Wednesday. Highs will warm into the mid 80s. Expect plenty of sunshine with highs in the low to mid 80s for the second half of the week and weekend.

Today: Sun & Clouds, Scattered Showers (30%), Windy. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds: NE 10-20 G30

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (40%), Windy. Lows near 70. Winds: N 15-25 G35

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (40%), Windy. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winds: N/NW 15-25 G35+

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Moderate (Ragweed)

UV Index: 5 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm warning issued for a portion of the Southern New England. Jose is centered about 265 miles ESE of Cape Hatteras, NC and moving N at 9 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina today, pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday.Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 18

Location: 33.9°N 71.1°W

Moving: N at 9 mph

Min pressure: 977 mb

Max sustained: 75 mph

Maria rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane moving toward the Leeward Islands. Maria is centered about 60 miles east of Martinique and moving WNW at 10 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight, over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18

Location: 14.7°N 60.1°W

Moving: WNW at 10 mph

Min pressure: 959 mb

Max sustained: 120 mph

Lee is hanging on as a tropical depression. Lee is centered about 1115 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving WNW at 14 mph. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Lee is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday.

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18

Location: 14.1°N 40.6°W

Moving: WNW at 14 mph

Min pressure: 1007 mb

Max sustained: 35 mph

Hurricane Tracker

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

September 18th

1936 Hurricane: Cat 3 storm moved up coast, moderate damage

2003 Hurricane Isabel Impact with Tornadoes, Flooding, High Winds large portions of eastern Virginia, North Carolina

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