Thursday’s First Warning Forecast: A hot and humid end to the week

Posted at 5:16 AM, Aug 16, 2018
and last updated 2018-08-16 09:21:31-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

Feeling like the triple digits… Highs will return to low 90s this afternoon. With the humidity, afternoon heat index values will climb to near 100. We will see mostly sunny skies this morning with clouds building this afternoon. Isolated showers/storms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly for areas near and south of the Albemarle Sound.

Expect more heat and humidity to end the work week. Highs will warm into the low and mid 90s on Friday, almost 10 degrees above normal. With more humidity, afternoon heat index values will reach 100 to 105. We will see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through the day with a chance for scattered showers/storms by late Friday afternoon to evening.

Rain chances will go up for the weekend. We will see a mix of clouds with scattered showers and storms for both Saturday and Sunday. It will still be humid but highs will slip into the upper 80s this weekend.

Today: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy, Isolated Showers/Storms (20%). Highs in the low 90s. Winds: SW 5-10

Tonight: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Showers/Storms (20%). Lows in the mid 70s. Winds: SW 5-10

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy, PM Showers/Storms (30%). Highs in the low 90s. Winds: SW 5-15

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Moderate-High (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 9 (Very High)

Air Quality: Moderate (Code Yellow)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

August 16th

1996 Severe Thunderstorms: Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Cumberland Co – Hail 0.75-1.00″

2000 Severe Thunderstorms: East Central Virginia – Hail 0.75″-2.00″

2007 Thunderstorms: Wind damage across Goochland, Powhatan, Amelia, Louisa

Tropical Update

Subtropical Storm Ernesto continues moving into the northern Atlantic. Ernesto is centered about 605 miles SE of the Cape Race, Newfoundland and moving NNE at 13 mph. A significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday.

5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 16

Location: 40.8°N 44.1°W

Moving: NNE at 13 mph

Min pressure: 1008 mb

Max sustained: 40 mph

We are also watching an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 750 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next 2 to 3 days while it moves WNW at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward Islands. After that time, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for additional development when the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%)

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