Friday’s First Warning Forecast: Heat index to 100+ today

Posted at 4:59 AM, Aug 17, 2018
and last updated 2018-08-17 09:10:49-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

Extreme heat today, rain this weekend… Highs will climb into the mid 90s this afternoon, almost 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. With more humidity, afternoon heat index values will reach 100 to 105. We will see mostly sunny skies this morning with clouds building this afternoon. A “pop up” shower or storm is possible this afternoon but rain will not be widespread.

Rain chances will go up for the weekend as a cold front moves in. Expect partly cloudy skies and low rain chances Saturday morning but clouds will build and rain chances will increase through the afternoon. Highs will hit 90 tomorrow but afternoon heat index values will climb to near 100.

We will see a mix of clouds on Sunday with more scattered showers and storms. Highs will drop into the upper 80s. It will still be humid, so it will feel like the mid to upper 90s. Severe weather is not expected Saturday or Sunday but heavy downpours are possible and could trigger localized flooding.

Highs will linger in mid to upper 80s next week. It will still be muggy, so afternoon heat index values will return to the 90s each day. We will be stuck in another unsettled weather pattern next week with fronts moving in and stalling out. Expect scattered showers and storms almost every day next week.

Today: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy, “Pop Up” Showers/Storms (30%). Highs in the mid 90s. Winds: SW 5-15

Tonight: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Showers/Storms (20%). Lows in the mid 70s. Winds: SW 5-15

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy, PM Showers/Storms (60%). Highs near 90. Winds: SW 5-15

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Moderate-High (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 9 (Very High)

Air Quality: Moderate (Code Yellow)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

August 17th

1974 F1 Tornado: Northampton Co

1986 Hurricane Charley

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical by tonight. Ernesto is centered about 800 miles east of the Cape Race, Newfoundland and moving NE at 25 mph. An even faster motion toward the NE or ENE is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Ernesto will approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone on Saturday.

5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 17

Location: 45.6°N 36.4°W

Moving: NE at 25 mph

Min pressure: 1006 mb

Max sustained: 45 mph

We are also watching a tropical wave located about 500 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it moves WNW around 15 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for additional development while the system moves over the

eastern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (20%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%)

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