First Warning Forecast: Tracking Remnants Of Florence

Posted at 3:15 PM, Sep 17, 2018
and last updated 2018-09-17 15:15:02-04

Meteorologist Madeline Evans’ First Warning Forecast

Still seeing fringe impacts from Florence… We are seeing Scattered showers and storms this afternoon with some heavy downpours mixed in. Severe storms are not expected at this time. It will be warm and muggy again today. Highs will reach the mid 80s with afternoon heat index values in the mid 90s. It will be breezy again today with SE to south winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday’s forecast will be very similar to today. Highs will warm into the upper 80s with the heat index in the 90s. We will see a mix of clouds with scattered showers and storms. It will remain breezy with SW winds at 10 to 15 mph.

We will see more sunshine for the end of the work week. Expect clearing skies on Wednesday and mostly sunny skies for Thursday and Friday. Highs will drop into the low to mid 80s and humidity will drop too. Rain chances will be slim for the second half of the week.

Today: Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers/Storms (40%), Breezy. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SE/S 5-15

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers/Storms (30%). Lows in the mid 70s. Winds: S 10-15

Tomorrow: Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers/Storms (60%). Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: SW 10-15

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Moderate (Ragweed)

UV Index: 5 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

September 17th

2004 Tornado Outbreak: Central, East Central, VA (Ivan)

2004 Tropical Storm Ivan: Flash Flood, Central, East Central Virginia

Tropical Update

Tropical Depression Florence is centered about 240 miles west of Charlottesville, VA and moving NE at 15 mph. Florence is forecast to become extratropical late today while accelerating to the ENE.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until the low moves into the western Atlantic by early Wednesday.

5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 15

Location: 33.6°N 79.5°W

Moving: WSW at 5 mph

Min pressure: 986 mb

Max sustained: 50 mph

Tropical Depression Joyce continues to fall apart in the northeast Atlantic. Joyce is centered about 285 miles SSW of the Azores and moving ESE at 8 mph. This forward speed is expected to continue while turning toward the SE today, south on Tuesday, and SW on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Tuesday.

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 17

Location: 34.0°N 28.4°W

Moving: ESE at 8 mph

Min pressure: 1008 mb

Max sustained: 35 mph

We are watching a broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac, near Jamaica. The system is moving west toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%).

* Formation chance through 5 days: Low (10%).

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