First Warning Forecast: More Rain On The Way

Posted at 2:15 PM, Sep 25, 2018
and last updated 2018-09-25 14:15:18-04

Meteorologist Madeline Evans’ First Warning Forecast

Today’s setup is very similar to what we saw yesterday. Showers and storms are already firing up this afternoon for Northeaster North Carolina and parts of the Southside. We will continue to see a 40% chance of scattered showers and storms through this evening. We are not expecting these to go severe but we could see some heavy downpours and lighting. We will continue to see an issue with tidal flooding through today and tomorrow with persistent Easterly winds. Rain will fizzle out overnight but we will stay mostly cloudy.

Expect a bit more heat and humidity for tomorrow. Highs will warm into the upper 80s but it will feel like the mid 90s tomorrow afternoon. We will see a mix of sun with a few quick showers possible in the morning. Most of the day Wednesday we will be dry until overnight into very early Thursday.

We are tracking an area of low pressure (that could become tropical) expected to near our coastline on Thursday. That will bring us a 70% chance of rain and storms but because of a cold front our temperatures will drop to the mid 70s as afternoon highs.

Friday we will start to dry out with only a 40% chance of rain for the morning and highs in the low 80s. The sky will clear throughout the day.

Today: Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers/Storms (40%). Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SE 5-15

Tonight: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Showers (20%). Lows in the low 70s. Winds: S 5-10

Tomorrow: Mix of Clouds, Isolated Showers/Storms (20%). Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: SW 5-10

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 7 (High)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

September 25th

1971 Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak: East Central VA, Eastern Shore

Tropical Update

We are tracking a broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This system could become a tropical depression later today while it moves NW. By tonight and Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong upper-level winds, while the system moves north and NNE near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall across portions of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (50%).

* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (50%).

The remnants of Kirk are located about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly west at around 25 mph. This disturbance could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (60%).

* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (60%).

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a northward turn Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is expected, and Leslie is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday with winds increasing to hurricane force on Thursday.

For weather updates on Facebook: MadelineEvansWx

Follow me on Twitter: @MadelineEvansWx

Follow me on Instagram: @MadelineEvansWx

Check out the Interactive Radar on Interactive Radar

Click here to sign up for email alerts from the First Warning Storm Team.