First Warning Forecast: Still Hot And Humid

Posted at 1:59 PM, Oct 09, 2018
and last updated 2018-10-09 13:59:23-04

Meteorologist Madeline Evans’ First Warning Forecast

Another unseasonably warm afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 80s with plenty of humidity mixed in. We are tracking scattered showers across the area which will continue through the evening. They will stay very scattered so the majority of us will make it through the day dry once again. We will also be in and out of the cloud cover. There will be another chance of some patchy for late tonight into tomorrow morning.

Expect a very similar picture for Wednesday. We will see a mix of clouds with a few scattered showers. Highs will return to the mid 80s and it will still be muggy.

Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall near the Florida panhandle as a major hurricane on Wednesday morning. Michael will likely weaken to a tropical storm over Georgia and track NE over the Carolinas on Thursday. Based on the current forecast track, SE VA and NE NC can expect strong winds and rain on Thursday into early Friday. Winds will be near tropical storm strength, building through Thursday, strongest Thursday night, and relaxing through Friday. Most of the area will see 2” to 5” of rainfall with locally higher totals possible. Changes in the forecast track or timing would change our local impacts. There could also be an issue with flooding and isolated tornadoes.

A big cold front will help to steer Michael off of the coast and bring in more fall-like conditions. High temperatures on Saturday will only reach the upper 60s which is actually below our normal high of 73. Sunday we will reach a high of only 70. Both days of the weekend will be dry, with lots of sunshine.

Today: AM Fog, Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers (30%). Highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds: E 5-15

Tonight: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Showers (20%). Lows in the low 70s. Winds: SE 5-10

Tomorrow: Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers (30%). Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SE 5-15

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Medium (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 5 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

October 9th

1959 F1 Tornado: Suffolk

2016 Flooding from Post Tropical Cyclone Matthew

Tropical Update

Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States by Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States.

Tropical Storm Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A motion toward the northwest at a similar forward speed is forecast on Wednesday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday, with weakening expected to begin by early Thursday. Nadine is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday.

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