Tuesday’s First Warning Forecast: Warm, muggy, and a few showers today

Posted at 5:48 AM, Oct 09, 2018
and last updated 2018-10-09 07:57:11-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

Another warm and muggy day… Watch out for a few areas of fog this morning, mainly inland. Expect another warm and muggy morning with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. We will see a mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the low to mid 80s, about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. It will still be muggy today, so it will feel more like the mid to upper 80s. A few scattered showers are possible today but rain will not be widespread.

Expect a very similar picture for Wednesday. We will see a mix of clouds with a few scattered showers. Highs will return to the mid 80s and it will still be muggy.

Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall near the Florida panhandle as a hurricane on Wednesday. Michael will likely weaken to a tropical storm over Georgia and track NE over the Carolinas on Thursday. Based on the current forecast track, SE VA and NE NC can expect strong winds and rain on Thursday into early Friday. Winds will be near tropical storm strength, building through Thursday, strongest Thursday night, and relaxing through Friday. Most of the area will see 2” to 4” of rainfall with locally higher totals possible. Changes in the forecast track or timing would change our local impacts.

A big cold front will help to steer Michael off of the coast and bring in more fall-like conditions. High temperatures will drop into the low 70s and upper 60s this weekend with much lower humidity.

Today: AM Fog, Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers (30%). Highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds: E 5-15

Tonight: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Showers (20%). Lows in the low 70s. Winds: SE 5-10

Tomorrow: Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers (30%). Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SE 5-15

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Medium (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 5 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

October 9th

1959 F1 Tornado: Suffolk

2016 Flooding from Post Tropical Cyclone Matthew

Tropical Update

Hurricane Michael strengthening while moving NNW through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Michael is centered about 395 miles south of Panama City, Florida and moving NNW at 12 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and tonight. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeast across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is

forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9

Location: 24.5°N 86.1°W

Moving: NNW at 12 mph

Min pressure: 968 mb

Max sustained: 100 mph

Tropical Storm Leslie forecast to slowly strengthen over the east-central Atlantic. Leslie is centered about 1035 miles WSW of the Azores and moving SSE at 13 mph. A slower motion toward the southeast is anticipated over the next day or two, with a turn toward the ENE forecast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could become a hurricane again on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Fifteen forms in the east Atlantic. TD 15 is centered about 475 miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving WNW a 12 mph. A turn to the NW is expected tonight and that general motion should continue on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

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