First Warning Forecast: Michael Moving Closer To Hampton Roads

Posted at 1:39 PM, Oct 11, 2018
and last updated 2018-10-11 13:39:51-04

Meteorologist Madeline Evans’ First Warning Forecast

*** Tornado Watch for all of eastern VA and eastern NC until 9 PM Thursday.

*** Tropical Storm Warning is effect for Dare County, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

*** High Wind Warning from 6 PM Thursday to Noon Friday for Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Hampton, Poquoson, Mathews, Northampton (VA), Accomack, Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank. Winds will reach 30 to 40 mph late Thursday to Friday morning, with higher gusts.

*** Flash Flood Watch in effect from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM Friday for most of eastern VA and NC.

We are starting to see more cloud cover roll in with scattered showers starting to pop up as Michael inches closer. It will still be warm and muggy with highs in the mid 80s. Rain will become more widespread this evening and tonight as the center of Michael gets closer. Heavy downpours and severe storms are possible, including a threat for isolated tornadoes. Winds will gradually increase today but will really ramp up tonight.

Expect widespread rain and storms tonight with winds at or near tropical storm strength. Many locations will see winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts to near 60 mph tonight into early Friday. Flash flooding is possible with pockets of heavy rain. Rain plus strong winds could also trigger power outages.

A big cold front will help to steer Michael off of the coast very quickly. Rain will move out very early Friday morning and we should see sunshine for most of the day. It will still be windy on Friday, strongest in the morning. Most areas will see NW winds at 20 to 30 with gusts to 40 tomorrow. Cooler air will move in behind the cold front. Expect highs in the low 70s Friday.

Get ready for a very nice, fall-like weekend. We will see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies both Saturday and Sunday with slim rain chances. Highs will drop into the upper 60s on Saturday and return to the low 70s on Sunday.

Today: Mostly Cloudy, Rain/Storms (80%), Windy. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: S 10-20G30

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Rain/Storms (100%). Lows in the low 60s. Winds: SE/NW 20-30G40+

Tomorrow: Early AM Rain, Clearing Skies, Windy. Highs in the low 70s. Winds: NW 20-30G40

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 5 (Medium)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

October 11th

2002 Heavy Rain: 3.45″ Norfolk, 2.83″ Salisbury

Tropical Update

Michael is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward speed are expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move across central and eastern North Carolina today, move across southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the
Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),mainly to the south and east of the center. A wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at Folly Island, South Carolina. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 47mph (76 km/h).

For weather updates on Facebook: MadelineEvansWx

Follow me on Twitter: @MadelineEvansWx

Follow me on Instagram: @MadelineEvansWx

Check out the Interactive Radar on Interactive Radar

Click here to sign up for email alerts from the First Warning Storm Team.