Thursday’s First Warning Forecast: Rain and wind from Michael moving in today

Posted at 5:36 AM, Oct 11, 2018
and last updated 2018-10-11 10:05:44-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

*** Tornado Watch for all of eastern VA and eastern NC until 9 PM Thursday.

*** Tropical Storm Warning is effect for Dare County, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

*** High Wind Warning from 6 PM Thursday to Noon Friday for Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Hampton, Poquoson, Mathews, Northampton (VA), Accomack, Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank. Winds will reach 30 to 40 mph late Thursday to Friday morning, with higher gusts.

*** Flash Flood Watch in effect from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM Friday for most of eastern VA and NC.

Rain and wind from Michael building in… Tropical Storm Michael will track northeast through the Carolinas today. We will see mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and storms. It will still be warm and muggy with highs in the mid 80s. Rain will become more widespread this evening and tonight as the center of Michael gets closer. Heavy downpours and severe storms are possible, including a threat for isolated tornadoes. Winds will gradually increase today but will really ramp up tonight.

Expect widespread rain and storms tonight with winds at or near tropical storm strength. Many locations will see winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts to near 60 mph tonight into early Friday. Flash flooding is possible with pockets of heavy rain. Rain plus strong winds could also trigger power outages.

A big cold front will help to steer Michael off of the coast very quickly. Rain will move out very early Friday morning and we should see sunshine for most of the day. It will still be windy on Friday, strongest in the morning. Most areas will see NW winds at 20 to 30 with gusts to 40 tomorrow. Cooler air will move in behind the cold front. Expect highs in the low 70s Friday.

Get ready for a very nice, fall-like weekend. We will see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies both Saturday and Sunday with slim rain chances. Highs will drop into the upper 60s on Saturday and return to the low 70s on Sunday.

Today: Mostly Cloudy, Rain/Storms (80%), Windy. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: S 10-20G30

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Rain/Storms (100%). Lows in the low 60s. Winds: SE/NW 20-30G40+

Tomorrow: Early AM Rain, Clearing Skies, Windy. Highs in the low 70s. Winds: NW 20-30G40

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 5 (Medium)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

October 11th

2002 Heavy Rain: 3.45″ Norfolk, 2.83″ Salisbury

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Michael moving into South Carolina. Michael is centered about 40 miles WNW of Columbia, South Carolina and moving NE at 21 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move across central South Carolina this morning, then move across portions of central and eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia this afternoon and this evening, and move into the Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles mainly to the southeast of the center.

8:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 11

Location: 34.1°N 81.8°W

Moving: NE at 21 mph

Min pressure: 986 mb

Max sustained: 50 mph

Hurricane Leslie expected to remain a hurricane for a few days. Leslie is centered about 1005 miles SW of the Azores and moving ENE at 10 mph. This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slower southeast motion is forecast to begin by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but weakening is expected over the weekend.

Tropical Storm Nadine to begin weakening soon. Nadine is centered about 595 miles west of the Cabo Verde Island and moving NW at 8 mph. This general motion is anticipated to continue during the next day or so. A turn toward the WNW or west is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend.

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