Maddie’s First Warning Forecast: Tracking Hurricane Dorian, storm surge and flooding potential to end the week

Posted at 3:29 PM, Sep 02, 2019
and last updated 2019-09-02 15:29:29-04

Meteorologist Maddie Kirker’s First Warning Forecast

Tracking Dorian…there is still uncertainty with the track of Dorian. Since we have a couple of days of fairly quiet weather ahead, it would be a good time to go over your hurricane plan and make sure you have your emergency kit stocked with water, canned food, batteries, etc. If we see impacts from Dorian, it would be on Thursday and Friday.

An isolated storm this evening cannot be ruled out, but the majority of us will be dry this evening and overnight under partly cloudy skies with lows near 70.

Tuesday kicks off the first day of school for southeastern Virginia and the weather will be great for it! Temperatures will start near 70 in the morning and return to the mid 80s in the afternoon. We will see partly cloudy skies with slim rain chances during the afternoon to evening. Any storms that develop will be due to heating of the day/sea breeze.

We will warm to the upper 80s on Wednesday before a cold front moves in. Expect sunshine in the morning with clouds building for the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will move in late in the afternoon to evening.

***Potential impacts from Dorian will be felt on Thursday and Friday. We are still days out so forecasts will be updated and fine-tuned.***

A cold front will move in from the northwest and stall on Thursday. At the same time, hurricane Dorian will be moving up the East Coast. Expect the biggest impacts on Thursday and Friday, with some rough surf and tidal flooding sticking around into the weekend. Right now, we could see 2-4 inches of rainfall and up to 6+ inches along the Carolina coast. Based on the current forecast track, wind gusts to 50+ mph are not out of the question late Thursday to early Friday.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Lows near 70. Winds: S 5-10

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: N/E 5-10

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Lows  in the low 70s. Winds: SE 5-10

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Medium-High (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 6 (High)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Tropical Update

Dorian remains a strong category 4 hurricane over Grand Bahama Island. Dorian is centered about 100 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida and moving west northwest at 1 mph. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening. Dorian will continue moving up the East Coast Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Hurricane Tracker

We are tracking four additional areas for potential tropical development…

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined since yesterday. Although this system is currently producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico have become more concentrated since last night. Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the surface circulation associated with the low has also become better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next two or three days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. This system is producing persistent shower and thunderstorm activity but does not have a well-defined surface center. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next few days and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

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