Wednesday’s First Warning Forecast: Hurricane Dorian moving up the East Coast

Posted at 7:06 AM, Sep 04, 2019

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

HURRICANE WARNING: For Dare, Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank, Perquimans, and Chowan counties including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. This means hurricane force winds in excess of 74 mph are expected within the next 36 hours.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: For Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Isle of Wight, Franklin, Southampton, Surry, Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, York, James City, Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Northampton (VA), Accomack, Gates, Hertford, Bertie, Northampton (NC). This means tropical storm force winds in excess of 39 mph will be possible within the next 48 hours.

STORM SURGE WARNING: For Dare, Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Chowan, Hertford, Bertie.

STORM SURGE WATCH: For Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Isle of Wight, Surry, Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, James City, Williamsburg

Hurricane Dorian moving up the East Coast… The weather will be quiet again today so you can get your last minutes preparations done. Expect partly cloudy skies today with an isolated shower possible. Highs will warm to the upper 80s and it will be muggy.

Hurricane Dorian is expected to move along the Carolina coastline Thursday to Friday. We will start with mostly cloudy skies and light winds Thursday morning. The outer rain bands of Dorian will move in Thursday afternoon to evening. Winds will gradually pick up through the day, 10-20 mph by the late afternoon.

We will feel the biggest impacts from Hurricane Dorian on Friday. Expect widespread heavy rain Friday morning, tapering off through the afternoon. We could see 2-4 inches of rainfall in southeastern Virginia and 4-8 inches in northeastern North Carolina, with locally higher totals possible. Watch out for flash flooding on Friday. Tropical storm force winds are possible for much of Hampton Roads and the Albemarle. Hurricane force winds are possible on the Outer Banks, especially closer to Hatteras. The strongest winds will move in Friday morning through midday. We will also see coastal flooding on Friday. Storm surge of 2-4 feet in Hampton Roads and the Albemarle, 3-6 feet for the Outer Banks.

Rain will move out, clouds will clear, and winds will relax just in time for the weekend. Rough surf and coastal flooding may linger. Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Today: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Shower/Storm. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: S 5-10

Tonight: Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Isolated Shower. Lows in the low 70s. Winds: S 5-10

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy, PM Showers/Storms. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds: E/NE 10-20G30

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Medium-High (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 7 (High)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

September 4th

1775 Hurricane: Flooding caused numerous deaths

1999 F2 Tornado Hampton (Dennis)

Tropical Update

Dorian moving parallel to the northeast coast of Florida. Dorian is centered about 90 miles ENE of Daytona Beach, Florida or 205 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina and moving NNW at 9 mph. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the NW on Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. A slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Hurricane Tracker

Tropical Storm Fernand bringing rain and wind to Mexico and south Texas. The center of Fernand is forecast to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico this afternoon or evening and move farther inland tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center moves onshore. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Fernand should dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle strengthening in the eastern Atlantic. Gabrielle is centered about 715 miles WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving NW at 9 mph. This motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with an increase in forward speed expected late in the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

We are tracking a trough of low pressure, located just east of Bermuda. Some development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves northeast, away from Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (50%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (50%)

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west to WNW.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: High (60%)

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