Maddie’s First Warning Forecast: All eyes on Dorian as we face major flooding and severe weather starting tonight

Posted at 6:29 PM, Sep 05, 2019
and last updated 2019-09-06 01:16:25-04

Meteorologist Maddie Kirker’s First Warning Forecast

TORNADO WATCH: For Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Dare, Bertie, Hertford, Currituck, Pasquotank, Gates, Chowan, Perquimans, and Camden. Short-lived, spin-up tornadoes possible overnight through 7am Friday.

HURRICANE WARNING: For Dare, Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Hertford and Chowan counties including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. This means hurricane force winds in excess of 74 mph are expected within the next 36 hours.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: For Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Isle of Wight, Franklin, Southampton, Surry, Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, York, James City, Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Northampton (VA), Accomack, Gates, Hertford, Bertie, Northampton (NC). This means winds in excess of 39 mph are expected within the next 36 hours

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: for Sussex County. This means tropical storm force winds in excess of 39 mph will be possible within the next 48 hours.

STORM SURGE WARNING: For Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Newport News, Hampton, Poquoson, Suffolk, Surry, Isle of Wight, James City, Williamsburg, Dare, Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Chowan, Hertford, Bertie. Life-threatening storm surge possible.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH: For Northampton (VA), York, Newport News, Hampton, Poquoson, Isle of Wight, Suffolk, Southampton, Franklin, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Northampton (NC), Hertford, Bertie, Gates, Chowan, Perquimans, Pasquotank, Camden, Currituck, Dare. This means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH: For Gloucester, Middlesex, Mathews, York, Accomack, Northampton (VA). A Coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for flooding are expected to develop.

Hurricane Dorian will move in overnight. Showers and storms will become widespread after midnight from south to north across the area, starting first in NE North Carolina and second in SE Virginia.  By early Friday, the entire area will have rain. The rain will end west to east by sunset Friday, lasting longest along the immediate coast and Eastern Shore. Overall, we could see 4-8 inches of rainfall across much of eastern North Carolina and parts of southeastern VA, with locally higher totals possible. Expect 2-4 inches of rain for the peninsulas and inland.

Tropical storm (39+mph) force winds are likely for most of Hampton Roads and portions of inland North Carolina. Hurricane (74+ mph) force winds are likely for the Albemarle and on the Outer Banks, especially closer to Hatteras. The strongest winds will move in Friday morning through midday.

We will also see coastal flooding on Friday. Storm surge of 2-4 feet in Hampton Roads and the Albemarle, 3-6 feet for the Outer Banks is possible. One of the impacts we’re most worried about is tidal flooding. High tide at Sewells Point is at 4 PM on Friday. Right now, we could see major flooding. Many flood prone areas will become inundated and impassable during that time period.

Dorian will quickly move off to the northeast Friday night and high pressure will build in just in time for the weekend. Expect clearing skies with low rain chances for the weekend. Temperatures will warm to the low and mid 80s. Expect rough surf and some coastal/tidal flooding to linger through the weekend.

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Medium (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 3 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Tropical Update

Dorian bringing damaging winds, significant rainfall, and major flooding to the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and tomorrow. Dorian is centered about 45 miles to the SSE of Myrtle Beach, SC and 85 miles SSW of Wilmington, NC.

Dorian is moving to the northeast near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase of forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of eastern SC for the next several hours and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the SE of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

Hurricane Tracker

1. A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda is producing limited showers and thunderstorms, well to the southeast of the center. This system has become poorly defined and significant development is not anticipated.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Only slow development of this disturbance, if any, is expected during the next couple of days while it moves slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

3. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located about 100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean through early next week. Enhanced rainfall is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands through early Friday as the disturbance moves through the region.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Check out the Interactive Radar on Interactive Radar

Click here to sign up for email alerts from the First Warning Storm Team.