Allan Lichtman is a historian who wrote “The Keys to the White House,” which outlines 13 metrics for predicting the outcome of a presidential election.
Lichtman’s method has proven to work over the years, as he broke from other prognosticators and predicted a Donald Trump victory in 2016. And with the 2020 presidential election now less than three months away, he has weighed in on this year’s race.
Lichtman predicts that Joe Biden will win in November.
The 13 keys looks at issues such as social unrest, the economy, previous midterm results, scandal, and military results. Lichtman predicting elections in the early 80s, and accurately called for Ronald Reagan's victory in 1984. He has called eight elections since.
Lichtman explains his method in a New York Times video op-ed.