A slight majority of Virginians appear poised to vote "yes" on the Democrat-led measure to redraw the commonwealth's congressional districts in their favor, according to a poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University.
Democratic leaders say they are trying to counter Republican efforts to paint their maps with more red in states like Texas, Indiana, and North Carolina before the 2026 midterms — where control of the House of Representatives and aspects of President Trump's agenda are both at stake.
If the referendum passes on April 21, Democrats can redraw Virginia's congressional maps to give them an apparent 10-1 advantage, a possible pick-up of five seats. Currently, six Democrats and five Republicans represent the commonwealth in the House.
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The GMU/WaPo poll was conducted from March 26 to 31. This poll is based on a total of 1,101 interviews with registered voters in Virginia and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
To delineate likely and registered voters, GMU/WaPo poll asked respondents on whether they plan to participate in the April 21 election:
- Certain to vote: 64%
- Probably vote: 13%
- Chances 50/50: 7%
- Less than 50/50: 1%
- Will not vote: 2%
- Already voted: 12%
- No opinion/skipped: 2%
The GMU/WaPo poll directly asked respondents how they will vote in the special referendum. A "yes" vote would allow the mid-decade redistricting push to proceed, while a "no" vote would block the effort.
Among likely voters:
- Yes: 52%
- No: 47%
- No opinion/skipped: 2%
Among registered voters:
- Yes: 53%
- No: 44%
- No opinion/skipped: 3%
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Registered voters responded to another question that asked whether they believe the redistricted map proposed by Democrats is "a fair or unfair representation of Virginians' political preferences":
- Fair: 44%
- Unfair: 48%
- No opinion/skipped: 9%
The WaPo/GMU poll went on to ask registered voters about their thoughts on which party is handling the redrawing of Congressional boundaries fairly:
- Only the Democrats: 28%
- Only the Republicans: 14%
- Both parties: 10%
- Neither party: 42%
- No opinion/skipped: 6%
Watch related: Virginia Dems push redistricting referendum at Portsmouth town hall
While Gov. Spanberger signed the bill to allow the referendum and said she supports voting yes, she has avoided campaigning heavily in the purple state that she won by about 15 percentage points last November.
A virtual town hall featuring figures in favor and opposed to the redistricting measure will be hosted on Thursday at 7 p.m.
