First Warning Forecast: A severe storm threat and flooding risk

Posted at 4:57 AM, Sep 29, 2020
and last updated 2020-09-29 09:38:59-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

Severe storms and flooding threats… A slow-moving cold front will cross the area today and tomorrow from west to east. Scattered showers and storms will fire up ahead of the front today. Rain will become more widespread and the storm threat will increase tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible with heavy downpours, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. Highs will reach the upper 70s today and winds will pick up through the day.

Widespread rain will continue for Wednesday morning. Between today and tomorrow, most of the area will see 1” to 2” of rainfall with locally higher totals possible. Showers will become more scattered by midday and clouds will clear through the afternoon. Highs will dip to the low and mid 70s tomorrow.

We will see more sunshine with a big cool down to end the week. Highs will drop from the mid 70s on Thursday to the mid 60s on Friday. Expect a nice and cool weekend. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 60s with a mix of mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

Today: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers/Storms. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds: S 5-15

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Rain, Storms. Lows in the mid 60s. Winds: S 10-20

Tomorrow: AM Rain, Clearing Skies. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: W/N 5-10

Weather & Health

Pollen: Low (Ragweed, Sagebrush)

UV Index: 6 (High)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Very High

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

September 29th

1999 Severe Thunderstorms Wind Damage: Fluvanna Co, Louisa Co

2010 Heavy Rain: SE VA (last until Oct 1st)

2016 Heavy Rain: Flash flooding across portions of the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore

Tropical Update

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly WNW over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (0%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (50%)

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