First Warning Forecast: Another rain chance today, not as soggy this weekend

Wx Rain Umbrella.png
Posted at 5:51 AM, Sep 11, 2020
and last updated 2020-09-11 13:08:10-04

KJ's First Warning Forecast

The wet weather continues... Rain chances are going up for this afternoon and evening with the potential of heavy rain capable of localized flooding. Also, it's a warm and humid day across Hampton Roads along with breezy conditions at times.

Big changes are coming soon to the region, back-to-back cold fronts will bring additional rainfall along with two periods of cooler and less humid conditions. In other words, the feeling of autumn is just around the corner.

The first of two fronts will sweep through tonight into Saturday. Cooling into the upper 70s Saturday, blustery at times due to northeast wind gusts. We're trending drier for much of the day Saturday. Warmer and muggy Sunday with a window of afternoon/evening storm chances. However, the best rain is expected on Monday with the passage of the second cold front.

Much cooler fall-like air will settle in Tuesday and last through midweek... highs in the 70s and some overnight lows could even slip into the upper 50s.

Today: Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers/Storms. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SW/NE 5-15

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers/Storms. Lows in the low 70s. Winds: NE 10-15

Tomorrow: Partly Sunny, Scattered Showers, Windy. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds: NE 10-20G30

Weather & Health

Pollen: Low-Medium (Ragweed)

UV Index: 8 (Very High)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

September 11th

1883 Heavy Rain: 2.66" Norfolk

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Paulette expected to become a hurricane this weekend. Paulette is centered about 795 miles ENE of the northern Leeward Islands. A motion toward the northwest is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Saturday, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical Storm Rene is centered about 1085 miles WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving WNW at 13 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Friday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A NNW and north motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days. Afterward, weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally west across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (70%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: High (90%)

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to move west, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly WNW over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (60%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (70%)

We are also tracking several smaller areas with low chances for tropical development.