First Warning Forecast: Flooding rain and a severe threat to end the week

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Posted at 5:22 AM, Sep 17, 2020
and last updated 2020-09-17 13:15:06-04

First Warning Forecast

Soaking rain is underway… The remnants of Sally are starting to cover the area with light to moderate showers. Expect steady showers with batches of heavy downpours capable of causing flash flooding. Severe storms are possible, mainly in North Carolina, including the threat for tornadoes.

Rain will continue overnight and into Friday. Expect widespread rain Friday morning, becoming more scattered by the afternoon. Most of the area will see 3” to 4” of rainfall over the next 48 hours. Locally higher totals are possible. Winds will pick up on Friday, NE 15-25 with gusts to near 35 mph.

Rain to kick off the weekend, but those chances are low and limited to Saturday. We'll have more sunshine mixing in on Sunday and fall-like with highs in the upper 60s and low humidity. Gusty winds this weekend... persistently strong winds from the NE at 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35+ will likely trigger “moderate” level tidal flooding for multiple high tides this weekend.

Today: Mostly Cloudy, Widespread Rain. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: SE/E 5-15

Tonight: Widespread Rain, Isolated Storms. Lows in the upper 60s. Winds: E 5-15

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy, Widespread Rain. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: NE 15-25G35

Weather & Health

Pollen: Low (Ragweed)

UV Index: 1 (Low)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Very High

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

September 17th

2004 Tornado Outbreak: Central, East Central, VA (Ivan)

2004 Tropical Storm Ivan: Flash Flood, Central, East Central Virginia

2018 Tornado Outbreak: 9 confirmed tornadoes Richmond & South-Central VA area.

Tropical Update
Remnants of Sally is centered about 115 miles SW of Athens, Georgia and moving NE at 21 mph. Sally will continue to move over Georgia and South Carolina today through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. As Sally continues to weaken, it continues to pose a threat to areas across the southeast and mid-Atlantic with wind, rain and severe weather along with potential flooding.

Hurricane Teddy becomes a major hurricane over the Atlantic. Teddy is centered about 610 miles ENE of the Lesser Antilles and moving NW at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Teddy is on a path towards the Island of Bermuda for early next week.

Tropical Depression Vicky continues to weaken, but it'll likely maintain its depression status through at least Friday evening. The weakening system is 1000 miles WNW of Cabo Verde Islands with west movement. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect... No threat to land and it should dissipate by Saturday morning.

Two separate disturbances are gaining some momentum with medium to high chances of further development over the next five days. Neither poses an immediate threat at this time. Here's some additional information below on one disturbance with a high chance of forming.

Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better organized this morning in association with a well-defined low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and, if this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly north to NE on Friday and Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: High (90%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: High (90%)