KJ's First Warning Forecast
Some rain today, but Thursday is likely going to be a wash out.
An area of low pressure has the potential to become a tropical system tonight as it moves into the warm waters off the Carolina coast. We're timing out heavy rain and gusty winds for our area despite whether it becomes a named storm.
Heavy rain could arrive in the Outer Banks overnight into sunrise. Showers and storms are expected to move up into Hampton Roads throughout the morning hours. Flood concerns may arise especially if some areas are hammered with rain repeatedly over a short period. Overall, the system is on track to move northeast up the mid-Atlantic region.
Expect winds to ramp up at 10 to 20 with gusts to near 30 mph from the east/northeast. Highs will only reach the low to mid 80s tomorrow, but you'll still notice the mugginess outside of any shower or storm.
Rain and storms will continue for Friday. Highs will warm to the upper 80s, but it will feel more like the mid 90s. Scattered showers and storms will linger through the weekend. Highs will warm to the low 90s with a heat index near 100.
Today: Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers/Storms. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SE 5-15
Tonight: Mix of Clouds, Scattered Showers/Storms. Lows in the mid 70s. Winds: SE 5-10
Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy, Showers/Storms, Windy. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: E 10-20G30
Weather & Health
Pollen: Low-Medium (Grasses)
UV Index: 9 (Very High)
Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)
1896 Tornadoes: Petersburg, Surry Co, James C Co, Williamsburg
1977 Tornado: Caroline Co
2005 Tornadoes: East Central VA
We are tracking an area of low pressure near the coast of South Carolina. The low is expected to move NE near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn NNE and move along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (60%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: High (70%)