First Warning Forecast
The best shower and storm chances are locked in for the next two days... Relentless pockets of heavy rain are likely once again Friday and Saturday.
Tonight, a stray shower is possible along with areas of fog by daybreak Friday. The nearby stationary front will keep those rain chances around for Friday and into the start of the weekend. Mid 80s tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds ahead of scattered showers and storms.
Saturday will be the wettest day of the weekend in terms of rainfall potential, but low chances of rain disrupting those outdoor weekend plans. 80s this weekend and humid with heat index values in the 90s. Overall, still below normal for this time of year, but much warmer conditions will return next week.
Tropical Depression Thirteen is not a well-organized system at this time based on reports from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, but it is still forecast to strengthen. TD 13 is centered about 500 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and moving WNW at 21 mph. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
Tropical Depression Fourteen is moving through the western Caribbean Sea as it continues to get better organized. TD 14 is centered about 100 miles E of the Nicaragua/ Honduras border and moving west at 17 mph. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just north of the northeastern coast of Honduras on Friday and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.
We are also tracking a tropical wave over western Africa that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Africa coast. This wave is expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and some slow development is possible through the weekend while it moves WNW at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (20%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (50%)