Weather

Actions

First Warning Forecast: Severe threat today, Tropical threat early next week

WX Lightning 2.png
SPC Day 1.png
Posted at 5:28 AM, Jul 31, 2020
and last updated 2020-07-31 08:05:16-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

Severe threat to end the week… We will see a mix of partly to mostly cloudy skies today with scattered showers and storms. The biggest window for storms will be this afternoon to evening. Strong to severe storms are possible with the potential for localized flooding and wind damage. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s today with an afternoon heat index in the triple digits.

Saturday will look and feel a lot like Friday. We will see partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and storms. A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible again tomorrow. Highs will reach the low 90s with an afternoon heat index near 100.

More sunshine will mix in for Sunday, but it will be hotter. Highs will reach the mid 90s with a heat index to 105+. A “pop up” shower or storm is possible on Sunday but much lower chances than Saturday.

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to move up the East Coast early next week. Based on the current forecast track, it will be closest to VA/NC later Monday to early Tuesday. Expect heavy rain, strong winds, rough surf, and a high risk for rip currents.

Today: Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers/Storms. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Winds: SW 5-10

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers/Storms. Lows in the mid 70s. Winds: SW 5-10

Tomorrow: Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers/Storms. Highs in the low 90s. Winds: W/S 5-10

Weather & Health

Pollen: Low-Medium (Grasses)

UV Index: 10 (Very High)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

July 31st

1992 Severe Thunderstorm Winds: Central, East Central VA

1996 Severe Thunderstorm Damage: Southeast, East Central VA

2016 Flash Flooding: Virginia Beach & Norfolk

Tropical Update
Hurricane conditions expected over parts of the Bahamas today. Isaias is centered about 30 miles NW of Great Inagua Island or about 340 miles SE of Nassau and moving NW at 17 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight and near the Northwestern Bahamas and near the Florida east coast on Saturday and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.

We are tracking a small area of low pressure a couple of hundred miles ESE of the Cabo Verde Islands. The system is moving north toward less favorable environmental conditions, and the chance of this system becoming a tropical depression is decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (20%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%)

We are tracking a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of this system is possible while it turns NW over the western Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (0%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%)

Weather updates on social media:

Facebook: MylesHendersonWTKR

Twitter: @MHendersonWTKR

Instagram: @MylesHendersonWTKR