Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast
Hurricane Erin is brushing by the North Carolina coast today. Clearing, calming, and lower humidity to end the week.
Hurricane Erin is tracking about 200 miles off the NC coastline. Even though the core of this storm is expected to stay over the water, we will still feel the outside impacts. Coastal flooding will increase today with ocean overwash likely along the Outer Banks. The biggest flooding threat will be near high tide this evening. The wind will ramp up today, with gusts reaching 40 to 50 mph along the coast. Expect scattered showers as the outer rain bands wrap inland. We will continue to see several days of rough surf and high risk for rip currents.
The wind will back down, and skies will clear on Friday. Highs will top out near 80 with lower humidity.
Highs will remain in the low to mid 80s this weekend. Expect partly cloudy skies with a few scattered showers possible on Sunday.
A cold front on Monday will bring in a small chance for showers and storms but will also bring in another cool down for next week.
Today: Scattered Showers, Windy. Highs near 80. Winds: N 15-25 G35
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Winds: N 10-20
Tomorrow: Clearing Skies. Highs near 80. Winds: N/E 5-15
Weather & Health
Pollen: Medium (Ragweed, Grasses)
UV Index: 8 (High)
Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
Mosquitoes: Extreme
Tropical Update
Hurricane Erin is centered about 200 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, NC. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Beaufort Inlet, NC to Chincoteague, VA including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Cape Lookout to Duck, NC.
A faster motion toward the NE and ENE is expected later today and on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today through early Friday and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next several days, and Erin is likely to become post-tropical by Saturday.
Erin is a large hurricane.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles.
Tracking a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (30%)
* Formation chance through 7 days: High (70%)
Tracking a tropical wave located several hundred miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves WSW and a short-lived tropical depression could form.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (40%)
* Formation chance through 7 days: Medium (40%)
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