If Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton go head to head in Virginia, Clinton is the likely winner according to a new CNU poll.
Clinton leads Trump 44% to 35% among likely Virginia voters.
90% of Virginia Democratic primary voters say they will support Clinton in November, but that same party loyalty does not exist in the Trump camp.
Only 67% of Republican primary voters said they would support Trump if he were to become the nominee. 29% say they will vote for the other party’s candidate, vote for a 3rd party or not vote at all.
“We found a real loyalty gap,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center. “If Donald Trump turns out to be the Republican nominee, it’s clear that a very significant proportion of Republican voters will either defect or stay home. But it looks like most Democrats – even those who backed Bernie Sanders in the March primary – would support Clinton.”
The gender gap favors Clinton. Women voters would vote for Clinton by 23% more than Trump.
“There’s a sizable distaste for Trump among Virginia Republican voters,” said Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, director of the Wason Center Survey Research Lab. “Almost a third would defect or stay home in November. A solid third like the idea of stopping him in July by giving the nomination to another candidate in a brokered convention. This adds up to a real advantage for Clinton in purple Virginia.”