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First Warning Forecast: Tracking a cold front and Tropical Storm Hermine

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Posted at 1:40 PM, Sep 01, 2016
and last updated 2016-09-01 13:40:22-04

Tracking a cold front and Tropical Storm Hermine….We are keeping an eye on two systems that will have an impact on our forecast. The first one is a cold front that will bring showers and storms today. The second one is Tropical Storm Hermine, which will play a big role in our holiday weekend forecast.

As we move through this Thursday, a cold front will move in from the northwest, giving way to scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Some of the rain could be heavy at times. Otherwise, we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s. A few scattered showers and storms are possible tonight as well. Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s.

Then, our attention turns to Hermine. The storm will make landfall over Florida, then move up the East Coast Friday through Saturday. We’ll start our Friday under a mix of sun and clouds. A few isolated showers are possible during the day. But the bulk of the rain will arrive by evening and through the night as Hermine gets closer to the area. The rain will arrive from south to north. So communities in North Carolina will see the rain first. Then, the rain will spread into Hampton Roads. The rain will be widespread and heavy, especially into Saturday. Some locations could see more than 6 inches of rainfall from this system. On top of that, isolated tornadoes are possible as well. Winds will start to crank up on Saturday, with gusts to 40+ mph, especially along the coast. Hermine will also produce rough surf and a high risk of rip currents.  We will also have some coastal flooding this weekend, especially around high tide. High tide times at Sewells Point on Saturday are at 11:09 a.m. and 11:25 p.m. On Sunday, high tide is at 11:47 a.m.

The rain should move out of the area late Saturday or early Sunday morning. Of course, that will all depend on the track of the storm. The winds will still be a bit windy on Sunday before relaxing by Monday. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s this weekend. By Labor Day, we’ll see partly cloudy skies and highs in the low and mid 80s.

Today: Partly Sunny. Scattered Showers/Storms (40%). Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: SW/N 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered Showers/Storms (40%). Lows in the low 70s. Winds: N 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow: Sun & Clouds. Scattered Showers/Storms (40%). Highs in the upper 70s. Winds: NE 10-20+ mph.

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Moderate-High (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 8 (Very High)

Air Quality: Moderate (Code Yellow)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Hermine is moving toward the north Florida Gulf coast. Hermine is centered about 170 miles SSW of Apalachicola, Florida and 220 miles west of Tampa, Florida. Hermine is moving NNE at 14 mph. This motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will be near the Florida coast tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Hermine is expected to be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

Hurricane Gaston is quickly moving toward the Azores. Gaston is 650 miles west of the central Azores and moving ENE at 24 mph. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Gaston will be near the western Azores on Friday and just north of the central Azores by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Gaston is expected to become a tropical storm by early Friday before it reaches the western Azores. Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Hurricane Tracker

 

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

1993 F1 Tornado: Bertie Co

1995 Severe Thunderstorms: Nottoway Co, Mecklenberg Co – Hail 0.75″-2.25″

2006 Tropical Storm Ernesto brings 8-12 inches of rain across south central & southeast VA, northeast NC and portions of eastern MD.

Dominic Brown
First Warning Meteorologist
WTKR-TV News 3
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