First Warning Forecast: Hurricane Matthew heads north, takes aim on the East Coast

Posted at 1:48 PM, Oct 04, 2016

Hurricane Matthew heads north, takes aim on the East Coast….All eyes are on the path of Hurricane Matthew. The storm made landfall in Haiti this morning and continues to move north toward eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane over the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. The storm will emerge just east of the Florida Atlantic coast by Thursday into Friday as a major hurricane. Then, by the weekend, the storm is expected to impact Hampton Roads and Northeastern North Carolina. The exact track of Matthew will ultimately determine exactly what we will see from this storm.

In the meantime, as we move through this Tuesday night, expect partly cloudy. A stray shower is possible, but most areas will be dry. Lows will be in the low and mid 60s with breezy winds from the northeast between 10 and 15 mph.

We’ll continue seeing a good deal of clouds and a few isolated showers through the rest of the work week as a persistent northeast wind keeps us unsettled. Highs will be in the low and mid 70s. Because of the wind, there will be a threat of tidal flooding for most of the week, mainly around high tide. Turn around, don’t drown.

Hurricane Matthew impacts

Here is an early look at what to expect this weekend as Matthew moves up the southeast coast…

(Note: Expect this forecast to be fine-tuned and adjusted as Matthew gets closer)

  • Heavy rains (4-8 inches) from Matthew could cause moderate to significant flooding. An already saturated ground will amplify the effects.
  • The exact path will determine the max winds. As of now, expect at least tropical storm strength winds with the potential for hurricane strength.
  • Saturated ground coupled with strong winds will increase our potential for falling trees and resulting power outages.
  • Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge are highly dependent on the track and intensity, but moderate to significant coastal flooding is possible in Hampton Roads and NE NC.

This Afternoon: Clouds and Sun. Isolated showers (20%). Breezy. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: NE 10-15 mph, gusts to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Isolated Showers (20%). Breezy. Lows in the mid 60s. Winds: NE 10-15 mph, gusts to 20 mph.

Tomorrow: Partly Sunny. Isolated Showers (20%). Windy. Highs in the mid 70s. Winds: NE 15-25 mph, gusts to 30 mph.

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Moderate (Ragweed, Sagebrush)

UV Index: 5 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Very High

Tropical Update

5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 4

Location: 19.8°N 74.3°W

Moving: N at 9 mph

Min pressure: 949 mb

Max sustained: 140 mph

Hurricane Matthew is moving toward eastern Cuba. Matthew is centered about 30 miles SSW of eastern tip of Cuba and 65 miles ESE of Guantanamo, Cuba, and is moving north at 9 mph. On this track the eye of Matthew will move over the extreme portion of eastern Cuba this evening.  A turn toward the NNW is expected by Wednesday, followed by a NW turn Wednesday night. Matthew is expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Matthew will approach the Atlantic coast of Florida on Thursday then move up the East Coast Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 4

Location: 24.1°N 61.1°W

Moving: NW at 9 mph

Min pressure: 1005 mb

Max sustained: 50 mph

Tropical Storm Nicole is located in the central Atlantic. Nicole is centered about 510 miles NE of San Juan, Puerto Rico and moving NW at 9 mph. This general motion will continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening.

Hurricane Tracker


Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

1911 River Flooding James-Appomattox Basin

2013 Coastal Flooding Oct 4 -15 as Low Pressure sits over Mid-Atlantic. Moderate flooding

Dominic Brown

First Warning Meteorologist

WTKR-TV News 3

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