First Warning Forecast: A chance of showers late Saturday, scattered throughout Sunday

Posted at 11:11 PM, Sep 21, 2018
and last updated 2018-09-22 08:21:34-04

Fall arrives this evening, but it will be one of our warmest days of the next 7. Temperatures will warm to the mid and upper 80s, it will feel a bit warmer with the rising humidity. A cold front will approach giving us a chance for showers this evening. We are looking at a 25 percent chance. We could see a little nuisance flooding at times of high tide. Today will be the pick of the weekend.

A bit cooler on Sunday. Temperatures will only warm to the upper 70s but that is where we should be for this time of year. We will have a 40 percent chance for some showers and storms by the later afternoon.

The beginning of the work week is looking a bit on the unsettled side. We are keeping a 30-50% chance for wet weather Monday through Friday. Highs will warm to the low and mid 80s.

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Moderate (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 7 (High)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Tropical Update

Tropical Depression Eleven is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph, and this general motion will likely continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected for the next day or two. The depression is forecast to dissipate late this weekend or early next week before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 21

Location: 13.1°N 53.4°W

Moving: WNW at 6 mph

Min pressure: 1007 mb

Max sustained: 35 mph

A low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 600 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although the showers and thunderstorms have decreased this afternoon, this system is still showing signs of organization. The environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (40%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (60%)

A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to dry air and strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development when the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the early and middle part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: Low (30%)

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight or on Saturday over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low: (30%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: High: (70%)

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