Wednesday’s First Warning Forecast: Rain and wind move in tomorrow

Posted at 5:48 AM, Oct 10, 2018
and last updated 2018-10-10 11:03:10-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

*** Flash Flood Watch in effect from Thursday 8 AM to Friday 8 AM for most of SE VA and NE NC. Expect 3” to 5” of rainfall from Michael, mainly late Thursday to very early Friday.

*** Tropical Storm Warning is effect for Dare County, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

*** High Wind Watch from Thursday evening to Friday morning for Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Hampton, Poquoson, Northampton (VA), Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank. Wind will reach 30 to 40 mph late Thursday to Friday morning, with higher gusts.

Rain and wind from Michael covering the Southeast… We will see a mix of sun and clouds again today with highs in the mid 80s. It will still be muggy today, so it will feel more like the upper 80s. A few scattered showers are possible today but rain will not be widespread.

Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall near the Florida panhandle as a major hurricane today. Michael will likely weaken to a tropical storm over Georgia and track NE over the Carolinas on Thursday. Based on the current forecast track, SE VA and NE NC can expect strong winds and rain on Thursday into early Friday. Winds will be near tropical storm strength (30 to 40 mph with higher gusts), strongest Thursday night to Friday morning. Most of the area will see 3” to 5” of rainfall with locally higher totals possible. Flash flooding and power outages will be our biggest impacts from Michael.

A big cold front will help to steer Michael off of the coast and bring in more fall-like conditions. Skies will clear on Friday with highs in the low 70s. High temperatures will drop into the upper 60s on Saturday with mostly sunny skies. We will see partly cloudy skies on Sunday with highs in the low 70s. It will feel very fall-like this weekend.

Today: AM Fog, Mix of Clouds, Isolated Showers (20%). Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SE 5-15

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (30%). Lows in the low 70s. Winds: S 5-15

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy, Widespread Rain (90%), Windy. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: S 10-20G30

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 6 (High)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

October 10th

1903 Hurricane: 74 mph winds Cape Henry, 9′ tides above normal

Tropical Update

Core of Hurricane Michael is approaching the coast of Florida. Michael is centered about 60 miles SSW of Panama City, Florida and moving NNE at 14 mph. On the forecast track, the core of Michael is expected to move ashore along the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon, move northeast across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is still possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10

Location: 29.4°N 86.0°W

Moving: NNE at 14 mph

Min pressure: 928 mb

Max sustained: 145 mph

Hurricane Leslie expected to strengthen over the east-central Atlantic. Leslie is centered about 1130 miles SW of the Azores and moving SSE at 7 mph. A slow turn toward the ENE is expected today, followed by a faster ENE motion from tomorrow through the early weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but weakening should begin by Friday.

Tropical Storm Nadine is a bit stronger. Nadine is centered about 505 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Island and moving NW at 7 mph. A NW to NNW motion is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the WNW is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated today, with weakening likely by tomorrow. Nadine is forecast to dissipate over the weekend.

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