Maddie’s First Warning Forecast: Latest on Hurricane Dorian, our potential impacts

Posted at 6:04 PM, Sep 03, 2019
and last updated 2019-09-03 23:35:37-04

Meteorologist Maddie Kirker’s First Warning Forecast

HURRICANE WATCH: For the counties of Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare, Pasquotank, Perquimans including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. This means Hurricane Force winds in excess of 74 mph will be possible within the next 48 hours.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: For the cities and counties of Accomack, Bertie, Chesapeake, Franklin, Gates, Gloucester, Hampton, Hertford, Isle of Wight, James City,  Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News, Norfolk, Northampton (VA), Northampton(NC), Poquoson, Portsmouth, Southampton, Suffolk, Surry, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg and York.

Hurricane Dorian moves our way later this week… We still have a few quiet weather days to prepare. Tonight will be another quiet night with only a slight chance of a storm early and partly cloudy skies.  A few areas of patchy fog are possible Wednesday morning.

It'll be another muggy and mainly dry day tomorrow. We will warm to the upper 80s. Expect partly cloudy skies with an isolated shower/storm possible.

***Potential impacts from Dorian will be felt on Thursday and Friday. As the storm moves closer the forecast will be updated and fine-tuned.***

Hurricane Dorian is expected to move along the Carolina coastline on Thursday. Expect the biggest impacts on Thursday and Friday, with some rough surf and tidal flooding sticking around into the weekend. Right now, we could see 2-4 inches of rainfall in southeastern Virginia and up to 4-7 inches in northeastern North Carolina. Based on the current forecast track, wind gusts to 50+ mph are possible late Thursday to early Friday. Tropical storm force winds are possible for much of the area with hurricane force winds possible on the Outer Banks.

Rain will move out and winds will relax just in time for the weekend.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Lows in the low 70s. Winds: E/S 5-10

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Shower/Storm. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: S 5-10

Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers/Storms. Lows in the low 70s. Winds: S 5-10

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Medium-High (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 8 (Very High)

Air Quality: Moderate (Code Yellow)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Tropical Update

Dorian moving northwest and growing in size. Dorian is centered about 105 miles east of Port Pierce, Florida and moving NW at 2 mph. A slightly faster motion toward the NW or NNW is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the NNE Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then move close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Hurricane Tracker

Tropical Storm Fernand: Satellite wind data indicate that Tropical Storm Fernand has formed in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Fernand will impact Mexico as a tropical storm late Wednesday night. The Tropical Storm Warning has been expanded for the coast of northeast Mexico and is now in effect from Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

We are tracking three additional areas for potential tropical development…

1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to exhibit a broad circulation. Any significant increase in thunderstorms would contribute to the formation of a tropical depression.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda were showing some signs of organization. Development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it moves northward. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. Periods of heavy rainfall are likely to impact Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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