Tuesday’s First Warning Forecast: Hurricane Dorian set to move up the East Coast

Tuesday’s First Warning Forecast: Hurricane Dorian set to move up the East Coast
Posted at 4:29 AM, Sep 03, 2019
and last updated 2019-09-03 11:30:14-04

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

Hurricane Dorian moves our way later this week… We still have a few quiet weather days to prepare. Back to school today and bus stop temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s this morning. A few areas of patchy fog are possible this morning. We will see partly cloudy skies through the day with an isolated shower/storm possible. Highs will return to the mid 80s this afternoon.

We will warm to the upper 80s on Wednesday, but it will still be nice. Expect partly cloudy skies with an isolated shower/storm possible.

***Potential impacts from Dorian will be felt on Thursday and Friday. As the storm moves closer the forecast will be updated and fine-tuned.***

Hurricane Dorian is expected to move along the Carolina coastline on Thursday. Expect the biggest impacts on Thursday and Friday, with some rough surf and tidal flooding sticking around into the weekend. Right now, we could see 2-4 inches of rainfall in southeastern Virginia and up to 4-7 inches in northeastern North Carolina. Based on the current forecast track, wind gusts to 50+ mph are possible late Thursday to early Friday. Tropical storm force winds are possible for much of the area with hurricane force winds possible on the Outer Banks.

Rain will move out and winds will relax just in time for the weekend.

Today: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Shower/Storm. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: W/N/E 5-10

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Lows in the low 70s. Winds: E/S 5-10

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy, Isolated Shower/Storm. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: S 5-10

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Medium-High (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 8 (Very High)

Air Quality: Moderate (Code Yellow)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

September 3rd

1821 Hurricane: One of most violent on record – eye over Norfolk

2003 Flash Flooding: Southeast Virginia

2010 Hurricane Earl Brushes Outer Banks

Tropical Update

Dorian moving northwest and growing in size. Dorian is centered about 105 miles east of Port Pierce, Florida and moving NW at 2 mph. A slightly faster motion toward the NW or NNW is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the NNE Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then move close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Hurricane Tracker

We are tracking four additional areas for potential tropical development…

A tropical depression will likely form later today about 200 miles off the coast of Mexico. The system will move generally west toward the northeastern Mexico coast late Wednesday. It is expected to become a tropical depression later today and become a tropical storm tonight.

Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined.  A tropical depression is expected to form later today while the system moves generally northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: High (90%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: High (90%)

A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles SSE of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (40%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (40%)

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west to WNW.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (60%)

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