Meteorologist April Loveland's First Warning Forecast
Partly cloudy, warm and muggy overnight. Expect lows in the mid and upper 70s. Not quite as hot on Monday with highs near 90. Isaias will approach the area bringing increasing rain chances by the afternoon and evening. Expect heavy rain and gusty winds overnight associated with Isaias.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate early Tuesday morning. Tuesday is an Action Day due to the threat of dangerous marine conditions, tornadoes, heavy rain, flash flooding and damaging winds.
TIME FRAME: The main impacts of Isaias are expected across the local area from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.
- Dangerous marine conditions--including rip currents.
- Tropical storm force winds (39+ mph) may cause power outages and downed trees, especially along and east of I-95.
- Flash flooding--especially inland from the coast.
- Increased threat of tornadoes across eastern portions of the area. --Tornadoes can occur well ahead and away from the storm center.
- Storm Surge will generally be 1 to 2 feet above normally dry ground in vulnerable areas. From mid to late week, we could see minor to locally moderate river flooding.
Expect highs in the mid 80s. Isaias will quickly move off to the northeast Tuesday night with improving conditions.
Unsettled weather will be the story Wednesday through Sunday. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 everyday with the chance for showers and storms during the afternoon.
Tropical Storm Isaias
A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when sustained winds 39 to 73 mph or higher associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in 36 hours or less. These winds may be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding, and/or river flooding.
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 70 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Tuesday morning until Tuesday afternoon
Tropical Storm Isaias expected to be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Carolinas.
Located about 50 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida and about 365 miles south of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday night.
Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
We're also watching...
A trough of low pressure is located about 300 miles north-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the trough has decreased during the past few hours and the system does not appear to be very well organized at the surface at this time. However, environmental conditions are expected to allow some slow development of the system to occur during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the western Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday before it stalls southwest or west-southwest of Bermuda by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 2 days: MEDIUM (40%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: MEDIUM (60%)
Meteorologist April Loveland
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