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First Warning Forecast: Warming up and tracking the tropics

Posted at 5:02 AM, May 15, 2020

Meteorologist Myles Henderson’s First Warning Forecast

A warm and windy end to the week… Temperatures will climb to the mid 80s today, about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. We will see sunshine today with just a few clouds in the mix. Winds will ramp up today, SW at 10 to 15 with gusts to near 25 mph.

We are watching a small chance for rain this weekend as a string of fronts stretches out across the Mid-Atlantic. Expect sunshine Saturday morning with clouds building and scattered showers/storms popping in the afternoon. It will still be warm on Saturday with highs returning to the mid 80s. More clouds will build in for Sunday with an isolated shower possible. Temperatures will cool to the mid and upper 70s on Sunday.

We are keeping a close eye on early next week and the potential for tropical development. An area of low pressure will form near the northern Bahamas this weekend and move northeast, just off of the southern East Coast. This low could develop into a tropical or sub-tropical storm (Arthur). Regardless of tropical formation, this low will bring us rough surf, a high risk for rip currents, and possible ocean overwash.

Today: A Few Clouds, Warm, Breezy. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SW 10-15G25

Tonight: A Few Clouds, Breezy. Lows in the mid 60s. Winds: SW 10-15G25

Tomorrow: AM Sun, PM Scattered Showers/Storms. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: SW/SE 5-15

Weather & Health

Pollen: Medium-High (Grasses, Oak, Mulberry)

UV Index: 4 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Low-Moderate

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

May 15th

2005 Severe Thunderstorms: Southeast VA - Hail 0.75"-2.00"

Tropical Update

We are tracking an area of low pressure located near southern Florida and the western Bahamas. Gradual development of this system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move generally northeast over the western Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: High (80%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: High (80%)

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