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First Warning Forecast: Widespread rain Monday, possible wintry weather early Thursday

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Posted at 5:38 PM, Jan 24, 2021
and last updated 2021-01-24 23:58:19-05

Meteorologist April Loveland's First Warning Forecast

Clouds will continue to build in overnight ahead of our next system. The clouds will help to keep some of our heat of the day in, so we won't be as frigid as the past couple nights. A few spotty showers, sleet or even some flurries possible. Expect lows in the low and mid 30s.

Mostly cloudy to start the work week. A few showers will be possible early, especially in the southwest portions of our North Carolina viewing area. Otherwise, I think most people should be able to make it through their morning commute rain-free. The evening commute will be a different story. Expect rain to become widespread by the afternoon and continue overnight. Highs will warm to the mid and upper 40s. Lows will cool to the upper 30s and low 40s.

Scattered showers will be possible early Tuesday with drier weather by Tuesday afternoon. Our weather models have our high temperatures all over the place ranging from the low 50s to the upper 50s due to the position of our weather systems. Right now, we're looking at highs in the mid and upper 50s. This will be our mildest day of the week. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s and low 40s overnight.

Wednesday will be mainly dry and cooler with highs near 50. An area of low pressure will move northeast up the coast of the Carolinas late. Showers will be possible by Wednesday night. Temperatures will fall into the 30s overnight with many communities either near or just above the freezing mark. Once again, our weather models are still in disagreement with a changeover from rain to snow. They are agreeing that the system will be moving much faster with precipitation chances continuing overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. The area of low pressure will exit the coast quickly Thursday morning with another disturbance moving through. This will continue to give the chance for a rain/snow mix. At this moment, the best chance for the changeover looks to be on the Peninsulas and the Eastern Shore. This is where the colder air will be. Dry air will rush in behind these two systems and high pressure will build in. We should see much drier weather after noontime. We're not only dealing with the chance for some wintry weather, but also strong winds. Winds will be out of the north 15-25 mph, with gusts 35-40 mph on Thursday. This will make our high temperatures in the low 40s feel closer to the 20s. Remember though, wind chill will not affect if we see snow or not. Once we dry out Thursday afternoon, the wind will continue to whip. Frigid overnight with lows in the mid and upper 20s with wind chills in the teens.

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EURO Model
Timing of the storm system according to the EURO. 2AM, 6AM, 10AM and 2 PM. This weather model is painting in a better chance to see some wintry weather than it has over the past few days. This model also has the system well offshore by 2 PM.
GFS Model
The timing of the storm system according to the GFS weather model at 2 AM, 6 AM, 10 AM and 2 PM. This model is now painting in more of a wintry mix than the past few days. It also has the system still onshore at 2 PM with a wintry mix.

A frigid, but dry end to the work week. It will still be windy with a brisk north/northwest wind. Expect plenty of deceiving sunshine. Highs will be near 40 with wind chills in the 20s. Brr! Even colder overnight as temperatures fall into the mid and upper 20s.

Saturday is looking dry with highs in the low 40s under mostly sunny skies. A bit milder on Sunday with highs in the low 50s with a chance of showers.

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Meteorologist April Loveland

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