Meteorologist Tony Nargi's First Warning Forecast
Last night's showers and storms continue to move north and out of the region this morning, with dry conditions expected through about midday. Showers on the Outer Banks will continue through the early afternoon. A flood watch is in effect for Southeast Virginia, with heavy rain possible this afternoon due to slow moving thunderstorms expected to form. Skies will stay cloudy all day, and about 0.5 to 2 inches of rain is expected, but isolated pockets of 3 inches will be possible. We'll see highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, with winds out of the E at 5-10 mph. Overnight showers and storms will taper off from west to east, with lows dropping into the 60s.
Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with spotty showers possible throughout the day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will be out of the NE at 10-15 mph.
On Monday showers and storms will be possible once again due to some moisture moving in far ahead of a tropical cyclone (soon to be Imelda) that will approach South Carolina. This storm will be a tricky forecast, but things have been trending in the right direction, with the storm trending towards staying offshore rather than making landfall. This would mean less rain for our area. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70s, with winds out of the NE at 10-20 mph.
With a strong tropical storm/category 1 hurricane (soon to be Imdelda) off the South Carolina coast along with Hurricane Humberto well offshore to our east, windy and cloudy conditions are expected Tuesday with thunderstorm chances. This forecast could change, but right now the trend has been towards lower chances of rain.
TRACKING THE TROPICS
Hurricane Humberto is expected to stay out to sea, taking a track similar to Hurricane Erin but staying a bit further east. The impacts felt from Humberto will be primarily rip currents and the potential for beach erosion and overwash on the Outer Banks. Hurricane Humberto is expected to strengthen into a category 5 hurricane by tomorrow, making it the second category 5 hurricane we've seen this year.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (soon to be Imelda) has a much trickier forecast ahead. PTC9 is currently still just a large cluster of thunderstorms with a very broad circulation, making it difficult to forecast because it has not fully developed into a tropical cyclone yet. PTC9 is expected to strengthen and impact the Bahamas as a tropical storm. It will then move north and stall off the coast of South Carolina. Models have been trending in a very positive direction, with the chances of PTC9 (soon to be Imelda) staying offshore and turning out to sea increasing. There is still a lot of spread in the models (see below) but more and more have been picking up on this turn out to sea. This would keep the extreme rainfall amounts offshore, and prevent a disastrous situation for the South Carolina and Georgia coastlines. This will still be an impactful tropical system, with wind, rain, and coastal flooding possible.
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