Meteorologist Tony Nargi's First Warning Forecast
Today will be nice with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds will be light out of the S at 5-10 mph. A warm up is on the way, with increasing dew points as well! There is just a 10% chance of a stray shower. Overnight lows will drop back down into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with a 30% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Highs will be warm in the mid 80s, with humid conditions as well. Thursday will be even warmer in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the low 70s, making it feel like the mid 90s. We'll have another chance (40%) of afternoon storms on Thursday, some of which could be severe. We have a marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather from the storm prediction center, with the main risk being strong wind gusts.
Friday into the weekend will be unsettled, with widespread showers and storms expected all day Friday and Saturday. We'll dry out a bit on Sunday, but it looks like some tropical weather could impact us come Monday (or perhaps as early as Sunday PM on some models). A tropical depression/weak tropical storm could bring some heavy rain to the area to begin next week, but its still a bit uncertain. That potential tropical weather would be from the 50% area below.
TRACKING THE TROPICS
Hurricane Gabrielle is currently a category 4 hurricane with 140 mph sustained winds and gusts to 165 mph. Gabrielle is moving east away from Bermuda and will only impact the fishes as it weakens over the open Atlantic then moves towards the Azores/Spain late this week.
Our two areas of concern from yesterday have seen an increase in their probability of development. The western area (near the leeward islands) with a 50% chance of development would pose a threat to us if organization ensues. The eastern area (over the central Atlantic) would be more likely to stay out to sea, but could keep swells high in our area if it develops into a hurricane. We'll continue to monitor these tropical waves as they move west.
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