First Warning Forecast: Heavy rain and gusty winds move in Thursday evening

Posted at 11:21 PM, Oct 10, 2018
and last updated 2018-10-10 23:21:41-04

*** Flash Flood Watch in effect from Thursday 8 AM to Friday 8 AM for most of SE VA and NE NC. Expect 2” to 4” of rainfall from Michael, mainly late Thursday to very early Friday.

*** Tropical Storm Warning is effect for Dare County, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

*** High Wind Warning from Thursday evening to Friday morning for Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Hampton, Poquoson, Northampton (VA), Accomack, Mathews, Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank. Wind will reach 30 to 40 mph late Thursday to Friday morning, with higher gusts.

Michael is expected to impact us here in Hampton Roads and Northeast North Carolina Thursday and Friday. We will see gusty winds, heavy rain and the threat of tornadoes. We won’t have to worry about storm surge. Some things you can do now include: Clear yard of loose items that could get thrown around. Make sure gutters are clear so water flows properly. Have extra gas for generators if power goes out. Have flashlights and extra batteries on hand.

Michael will continue to move northeast across the southeastern states and into the Carolinas. It will be warm and humid overnight with lows only dropping to the mid 70s. We could see some patchy fog.  A few showers are possible.

Rain chances will increase as the day progresses on Thursday. We will have a 100 percent chance of rain. It will be muggy with highs in the low and mid 80s. Thunderstorms are possible along with the chance for tornadoes. A cold front will move in late Thursday pushing Michael and the moisture offshore. Winds will start cranking up late Thursday and early Friday. Dry air will move in behind the cold front and dewpoints will drop. Clouds will clear throughout the day Friday with highs in the low 70s. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s, which will make it feel much more like Fall.

High pressure will build in for the weekend making for some tranquil weather. Skies will be partly cloudy on both Saturday and Sunday with virtually no chances for wet weather. It will be very fall-like with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s both days.

Showers and storms will move in again to start the work week. Temperatures will warm to the mid 70s.

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 6 (High)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Tropical Update

Michael is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph and this general motion should continue tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia overnight, and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a tropical storm by Thursday morning. Michael is forecast to re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

11:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10

Location: 32.1°N 83.8°W

Moving: NE at 20 mph

Min pressure: 970 mb

Max sustained: 75 mph

Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph. This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, with weakening forecast over the weekend.

11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 10

Location: 27.9°N 41.1°W

Moving: ENE at 12 mph

Min pressure: 978 mb

Max sustained: 80 mph

Nadine is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph, and this general motion is anticipated during the next day or so. A turn toward the west-northwest or west is forecast to occur on Friday. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend.

11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 10

Location: 13.6°N 32.7°W

Moving: NW at 8 mph

Min pressure: 997 mb

Max sustained: 65 mph

Meteorologist April Loveland

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