Thursday’s First Warning Forecast: Storm system to bring soaking rain and gusty winds

Posted at 10:32 PM, Nov 14, 2018
and last updated 2018-11-14 22:34:10-05

*** Flood Watch in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM Thursday for most of eastern Virginia and NE NC.

*** Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 PM Thursday for Dare County.

*** Flood Warning for the Nottoway River Near Stony Creek in Sussex County. The river will rise above flood stage by Thursday night and continue to rise to near 17.9 feet by Sunday evening.

***Wind Advisory in effect from 4 AM to 1 PM Thursday for Currituck County.

***Wind Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM Thursday for Accomack County.

***Wind Advisory in effect from 7 AM to 4 PM Thursday for Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Hampton and Northampton County.

An area of low pressure will continue to move toward the area bringing rain and wind on Thursday. Overcast skies overnight with rain and wind moving in. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10-15 mph. Temperatures will actually warm a bit overnight to near 50 by Thursday morning.

A soggy and windy Thursday on tap. Winds will continue to pick up out of the east and northeast at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts. We are tracking a 100 percent chance for rain throughout the day. It will be windy with scattered showers in the morning, so you may want to give yourself an extra few minutes for your morning commute. The rain will become more widespread by mid-morning and then taper off around sunset. We could even see some storms. The best chance will be in the late afternoon. The storm prediction has  a portion of Chesapeake, Virginia Beach and North Carolina  in a level 1 for severe weather which means and isolated severe storm is not out of the question. Flooding is possible due to the already saturated ground. We could also see some tidal flooding at times of high tide due to the northeasterly winds. It will be a bit milder with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. The area of low pressure will move out Thursday night and take the rain with it.

High pressure will build in to end the work week and stay in place for the weekend. Skies will be cloudy to start the day Friday, with clearing skies throughout the day. It will be cooler with highs in the mid and upper 50s.

The weekend is looking sunny and chilly. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s.

The dry weather will carry into the beginning of the work week. Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year.

Tonight: Overcast with showers moving in (40%). Lows in the low 40s then rising. Winds: NE 10-15 mph.

Tomorrow: Overcast, rainy and windy (100%). Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. Winds: NE/E 15-25 mph, with higher gusts.

Tomorrow night: Rain moves out. Partial clearing. Lows in the low and mid 40s. Winds: NE/SW 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low

UV Index: 1 (Low)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Low

Tropical Update

Disorganized shower activity over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the adjacent waters is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low. Development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with islands of the Greater Antilles. However, locally heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola for another day or so. This rainfall will also spread across portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Thursday as the system turns northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (0%)

* Formation chance through 5 days: Low (0%)

Meteorologist April Loveland

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