First Warning Forecast: Tracking a chance for scattered afternoon showers and storms

First Warning Forecast: Tracking a chance for scattered afternoon showers and storms
Posted at 11:12 AM, Sep 15, 2019
and last updated 2019-09-15 11:12:25-04

**High risk of rip currents at area beaches

A weak cold front will move through today. This will give us the chance for an afternoon/evening shower or storm. Chances will remain low around 30 percent, so not a complete washout by any means. We do have a high risk of rip currents today, so the red flags will be flying. Temperatures will warm to the low and mid 80s. It will be on the humid side with dewpoints in the low 70s.

Expect widespread, dense fog overnight and Monday morning. Skies will clear overnight with lows in the low 70s. It will be very humid. Dense fog will be an issue for folks heading out Monday morning. Once it clears, expect a nice day with highs in the low and mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.

A cold front will move in on Tuesday which will give us a slight chance for some showers. It will be on the breezy side with winds out of the northeast at 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. Humberto is still forecast to stay well offshore. At this point, the only impacts for us will be the rough surf and dangerous rip currents.

Refreshing air moves in behind the front. Dewpoints will fall into the 50s and temperatures will be in the mid and upper 70s. It will be a bit on the breezy side with winds out of the northeast. Expect a very similar day for Thursday. Low temperatures will be in the 60s both nights with some inland locations dipping into the 50s. Great weather to open those windows!

Temperatures will warm a bit on Friday, but still comfortable. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to near 80.  Dewpoints will start to creep up as well. We will continue with the warm up into the weekend with highs in the low 80s.

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Medium(Ragweed)

UV Index: 6 (High)

Air Quality: Good(Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

Tropical Update:

Humberto was located about 180 miles NNW of the Great Abaco Island and is moving toward the north near 7 mph. This motion is expected to continue into tonight. A sharp turn to the northeast is forecast to occur Monday morning or afternoon, followed by a motion toward the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the east coast of Florida through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph  with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center.

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central tropical Atlantic. Shower activity remains disorganized and only slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day or two. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development through the middle of the week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface trough. Some slight development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Meteorologist April Loveland

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