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Expert says this Virginia race could predict national political trends

Posted at 10:27 PM, Nov 07, 2022
and last updated 2022-11-08 07:10:35-05

RICHMOND, Va. -- On election night, all eyes will be on Virginia as both parties fight for control of the U.S. House of representatives.

Three competitive races are center stage, including in Hampton Road's second district and in Northern Virginia's 10th and 7th districts.

In the newly-drawn 7th district, Abigail Spanberger faces what is considered one of the closest congressional races in the entire country against Republican challenger, Yesli Vega.

"Her district is really a tossup district. President Biden carried it but Glenn Youngkin also carried it," CBS 6 political analyst, Dr. Bob Holsworth said.

Holsworth said the newly-drawn 7th district that moved its base from Chesterfield and Henrico Counties to Prince William, Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties tends to lean slightly Democratic.

The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade could motivate more democratic voters, but Holsworth said several other factors, including the president's low approval numbers and inflation, could make a huge difference for Republicans.

"There are three potentially competitive races in Virginia. If Spanberger wins, that probably poses a sense that the Democrats won't have a terrible night. I doubt it would still keep the House but if Spanberger loses, that's going to give a lot of confidence tomorrow evening to the Republicans that they may take 30 or more seats in the House so a lot of people are looking at this Spanberger Vega race as almost a bell weather of what's going to happen nationally on election night," Holsworth said.

Meanwhile, First Lady Jill Biden and Gov. Glenn Youngkin were busy on the campaign trail in Virginia on Monday, stumping for candidates they hope can carry their party to victory.

More information on this year's election and what to expect can be found in our 2022 Voter Guide.