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Race for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is the only toss-up in the state, analysts say

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The race for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District pits Democratic incumbent Don Davis against Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout.

It’s expected to be the only competitive congressional race in the state and one of the few toss-up ones across the Southeast. The Crystal Ball election forecasting at the University of Virginia says the seat leans Democrat in Davis' favor.

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The district, located in the northeastern part of the state, stretches from the border of Virginia into several counties of the Inner Banks and the Research Triangle.

A Republican hasn’t represented the district in more than 140 years. However, the state’s congressional map was redrawn by Republican lawmakers last year, which analysts say makes the district more competitive than in years past.

What’s at stake?

Analysts say whether Republicans or Democrats clinch control of the House, it will likely be by a razor-thin majority, making every seat a must-win. Right now, Republicans have a narrow advantage in the lower chamber with 220 seats while Democrats have 212.

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Candidate bios

Davis, an Air Force veteran, was born and raised in Snow Hill, N.C. He eventually became the town’s mayor, which kicked off his political career. He went on to serve in the North Carolina State Senate before being elected to Congress in 2022.

Buckhout, a retired Army colonel, grew up in Virginia but now lives in Edenton. She founded a strategic consulting business, which she sold in 2019. This is her first time running for office.