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First Warning Forecast: More humidity and the chance of storms

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Posted at 1:19 PM, Sep 15, 2021

Meteorologist April Loveland's First Warning Forecast

Humidity will continue to be on the rise. Expect highs in the upper 80s today with a few more clouds. Keeping a slight 20 percent chance for a spotty shower. Conditions will remain mild and muggy overnight with lows in the low 70s.

Watching the potential for an area of low pressure to develop near the Bahamas and move in our direction. It has about a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 5 days. Keeping a chance for some showers and storms by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will fall to the mid 80s.

A little bit better chance for showers and storms on Friday, but looks like most of the moisture from the area of low pressure will stay offshore. It will still be very humid with highs in the low 80s.

We'll continue with a slight chance for showers on Saturday with drier conditions moving in on Sunday as high pressure builds in. Expect highs in the low and mid 80s.

Tropical Update

Tropical Depression Nichola is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph and this motion is expected to slow through the next 24 hours before a gradual turn to the north prior to dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts over water and near thunderstorms. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours with the center of circulation possibly becoming quite diffuse by late Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: HIGH (80%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: HIGH (90%)

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM (60%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: HIGH (70%)

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW (0%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: LOW (20%)

Meteorologist April Loveland

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