First Warning Forecast: The best Fourth of July weather we could ask for

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Posted at 7:37 PM, Jul 03, 2021

Meteorologist Kristy Steward's First Warning Forecast

Our holiday weekend has had a fantastic start! Low humidity, lots of sunshine and high temperatures around 80°. Tonight, a stray shower may fall on the Peninsulas or Eastern Shore, but most should be able to remain dry. Lows drop to the mid 60s.

Beautiful weather continues throughout the Fourth of July. Sunday will just be warmer with highs in the mid 80s. Still plenty of sunshine and low humidity to enjoy! Around firework time, temperatures will be around 80°. Fun fact: low humidity makes firework displays more vibrant, so our displays should be gorgeous!

On the observed holiday, Monday, heat and humidity gradually start to build again. Highs start off next week in the low 90s. Sunshine and dry weather remains Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, our weather pattern begins to shift a bit as Tropical Storm Elsa starts to make its way up the East Coast.

Most of the day Wednesday should be dry. Isolated showers are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening well ahead of Elsa though. Elsa looks to really impact us locally all day Thursday. It's still too early to tell exactly what impacts we will see from Elsa as any tiny shift in its track could create a major change in our forecast. For now though, it looks like Elsa will bring us scattered thunderstorms from early Thursday morning into Thursday night. A few lingering showers/storms are possible Friday, but Elsa should be well off to our northeast by then. While Elsa is passing through, temperatures will be a bit cooler in the mid 80s Thursday and Friday. Of course, humidity will be higher too, so it likely won't feel much cooler. Next weekend, a system to our north could bring us isolated to scattered storms. Temperatures also look to rebound near 90°.

A more detailed look at Tropical Storm Elsa: Its center is currently located 175 miles east-southeast of Montego Bay, Jamaica and it’s moving west-northwest at 17 MPH. Current winds are 65 MPH. Elsa is weakening, but forecast to remain a Tropical Storm as it travels through Cuba, the Florida Keys, across Florida and up the east coast. There is Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Jamaica and parts of Haiti and Cuba. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for northern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida Keys. It’s too early to tell where exactly Elsa will track as it moves up the East Coast and towards Hampton Roads. Right now, the extended cone of uncertainty is centered over Hampton Roads with it directly over us Thursday afternoon. Any tiny shift in this track could have a large impact on our forecast. Stay tuned for updates and expected impacts!

Meteorologist Kristy Steward