Where the Virginia governor's race stands going into Thursday's debate

All eyes are on Virginia as the 2025 statewide elections near, and with Americans settling into President Trump's second term, a win in the governor’s race would make quite a statement for either party.

With Election Day just under four weeks away, a debate between Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger will be held Oct. 9 at 7 p.m. at Norfolk State University.

The long-awaited showdown follows an expensive campaign trail, with both candidates raising tens of millions of dollars.

Currently, Spanberger holds a comfortable fundraising lead, with more than $41 million raised — Earle-Sears has raised over than $16 million, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Both campaigns have spent millions of dollars on commercials attacking one another, which have become more abundant with the election approaching.

Watch related coverage: CNU poll puts Spanberger in the lead over Earle-Sears in Virginia governor's race

A couple days before the Oct. 9 debate, Christopher Newport University's Wason Center for Civic Leadership released a poll which placed Spanberger 10 percentage points ahead of Earle-Sears in a 52% to 42% split.

Research Director of the Wason Center for Civic Leadership Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo says Earle-Sears has a "tough hill to climb" due to Spanberger consistently polling above 50%. The official added that winning over independents would be one of the best options for the GOP candidate moving forward.

News 3 and many other news stations across Virginia have been sent scores of emails from both candidate's campaign teams. Instead of dedicating a single article to each press release, we decided to compile the back and forth into one comprehensive read.

So, let's see where the Virginia governor's race stands with the debate just a day away.

Campaigning critiques:

The Earle-Sears team expressed concern about a $50,000 contribution to Spanberger’s campaign in 2025 from Pin Ni, an executive at Wanxiang America Corporation, which is an American subsidiary of a Chinese conglomerate. The Republican candidate’s press office raised alarms over the company’s involvement in electric vehicle manufacturing and Ni's possible ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

For context, Ni serves on numerous boards that facilitate business and political relations between the United States and China. He is listed as the vice chair-president of the China General Chamber of Commerce-U.S.A. on their website — however, there is no direct confirmation of his involvement with the CCP. It should also be noted, Ni has made political contributions to both Democratic and Republican campaigns, according to Federal Election Commission data.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party of Virginia razzed Earle-Sears for not showing up at the Rockingham County bus tour stop, which was held on Sept. 23. They pointed out that demonstrators gathered around the campaign event to protest the lieutenant governor's support of the Trump administration's "Big, Beautiful" bill.

Education:

“My opponent has a decades-long record of wanting to defund Virginia public schools — and on the campaign trail, she has offered no plan to increase student achievement or support Virginia teachers. Today, I’m laying out my real plan to get Virginia back on track to deliver the world-class education our students deserve, and that we want for our children,” Spanberger said during a campaign stop in Portsmouth.

Spanberger's education platform includes addressing Virginia's teacher shortage, rejecting funding for private school voucher programs, and improving financial aid options for college-bound students.

Earle-Sears' press office said Spanberger is "parents last, ideology first" when it comes to education.

The Republican candidate's campaign team focuses heavily on Spanberger's voting record during her time in the House of Representatives. For example, the Democratic candidate was criticized for voting against the Parents Bill of Rights Act during a roll call vote in 2023.

This bill would have required parents to be notified about violent activity on campus, curriculum changes, and school policy on transgender students, among other issues.

"Winsome will empower parents to choose the best school for their children so every child gets a quality education. She will prioritize parents’ rights and basic reading and math skills over ideological grandstanding," the Republican candidate's website reads.

Jay Jones text scandal:

Democratic nominee for Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones was under fire for sending text messages that threatened violence against then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert and his family back in 2022, which was first reported by the National Review.

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In a statement, Spanberger said she spoke with Jones and urged him to take accountability for the threatening text messages:

“After learning of these comments earlier today, I spoke frankly with Jay about my disgust with what he had said and texted," Spanberger said in a statement. "I made clear to Jay that he must fully take responsibility for his words. What I have also made clear is that as a candidate — and as the next Governor of our Commonwealth, I will always condemn violent language in our politics.”

Earle-Sears' team tied Spanberger to this controversy, saying she is leading a ticket of "hatred, rage, and moral decay."

“It is not enough for Jay Jones to drop out of the race,” Earle-Sears said in a statement. “Let me be clear: Spanberger's continuing support for Jay Jones is also disqualifying her for office. ‘Let your rage fuel you,’ remember [what] Abigail said. She and her party’s irresponsible behavior have brought us to this point.”

Immigration:

Earle-Sears' campaign continued to attack Spanberger's voting record on the issue of immigration as well, specifically singling out her "no" vote against the Laken Riley Act in 2024.

There seems to be little daylight between Earle-Sears and Gov. Glenn Youngkin regarding their stance on undocumented immigration. On her website, Earle-Sears promises to "ensure violent criminal illegal immigrants are arrested, detained, and sent back to where they came from. She opposes sanctuary cities and will work alongside the Trump administration to remove those who break our laws and threaten public safety."

On the other hand, Spanberger told the Virginia Mercury in August that she would rescind Executive Order 47, which Youngkin issued in February. This order directed state police to carry out specific immigration duties while requiring jails to cooperate with federal deportation operations

During her time in Congress, Spanberger was split on policies seeking to crackdown on undocumented immigration. Although she did vote for a number of bills that broadened the use of deportation penalties for undocumented immigrants, such as the POLICE Act and the Violence Against Women by Illegal Aliens Act.

Economy:

Spanberger’s press office has regularly criticized her opponent for supporting the White House’s cost-cutting actions, specifically layoffs in the federal sector and the “Big, Beautiful” bill signed by President Trump in July. She has argued that costs will rise with Republicans in power.

“As Sears continues to put loyalty to Donald Trump ahead of what’s best for the Commonwealth, Spanberger has been outspoken about the consequences of this law for Virginians — including the estimated hundreds of thousands of Virginians who will lose their healthcare coverage,” reads a Spanberger press release.

Spanberger's economic policies were laid out in the "Growing Virginia Plan," which included establishing a paid leave program, increasing access to affordable childcare, furthering investment in the Port of Virginia, and supporting access to apprenticeship programs.

Earle-Sears has directly refuted Spanberger's plan, her press secretary called it "an arsonist's plan on fire safety."

“It takes a special kind of hubris for Abigail Spendberger (sic) to tell Virginians how she is going to make our economy strong when she is responsible for rising prices, crippling regulations, and the worst inflation in 40 years. Only a consummate insider like Spendberger thinks no one is going to look at her long and disastrous voting record. News flash: Voters are looking and they don’t want anything to do with it,” Earle-Sears' press secretary said.

Earle-Sears has regularly highlighted tax and regulation cuts that have been passed during her time as lieutenant governor. Her website says she will "scour the government books to cut wasteful government spending and job-killing regulations." She has repeatedly singled out the car tax as something she would aim to eliminate.

Crime:

Earle-Sears' team has tied Spanberger to what they called "soft-on-crime prosecutors." This was made in reference to Fairfax Commonwealth's Attorney Steve Descano, and Fairfax Sheriff Stacey Ann Kincaid, both of whom have endorsed the Democratic candidate. Youngkin says he ordered an investigation into Descano in regards to a surveillance video showing a repeat offender attempting to kidnap a toddler days after being released from jail.

81 sheriffs across the commonwealth endorsed Earle-Sears during the annual meeting of the Virginia Sheriff's Association — her campaign team touted this support as a "sharp contrast from her opponent."

"As governor, she will end radical policies like catch-and-release and ensure violent criminal illegal immigrants are arrested, detained, and sent back to where they came from," Earle-Sears' website reads. "A safe Virginia is a prosperous Virginia, and we cannot afford a governor who is willing to let criminals run amok."

Watch previous coverage: Virginia governor's race candidates share stances on public safety

Spanberger has also trumpeted her law enforcement endorsements — specifically, the Virginia Police Benevolent Association's (VAPBA). The VAPBA president was quoted, saying "she repeatedly voted to increase funding for local police departments and sheriff’s offices — and she was relentless in pushing her bipartisan Social Security Fairness Act across the finish line to secure the earned benefits of thousands of Virginia’s retired police officers."

It was pointed out that Earle-Sears received VAPBA's endorsement when she was running for lieutenant governor in 2021.

Spanberger's website also mentions her thoughts on gun control measures to combat crime. She believes "Virginia should toward enacting a ban on the manufacturing, sale, and transfer of assault-style weapons and high-capacity magazines — actions that are proven to reduce mass shootings."

LGBTQ+/gender identity issues:

This issue has been a major point for the Earle-Sears campaign. Numerous TV ads backed by the lieutenant governor criticize the Democratic candidate's previous voting stance on transgender athletes and other LGBTQ+ issues. Earle-Sears' press office routinely portrayed Spanberger as being dodgy on this issue.

“She knows most Virginia voters disagree with her vote to allow biological males in female spaces. Voters are taking notice and rallying behind Winsome Earle-Sears because she is fighting to protect their children from an extreme ideology run amok," said Peyton Vogel, press secretary for Earle-Sears.

The Republican candidate promised on her website that she will "preserve equal opportunities for female athletes and protect women-only spaces where women can compete—and win—fair and square."

The issue of LGBTQ+ rights came up during Spanberger's campaign stop in Newport News, where she met with Mayor Philip Jones for Pride Month celebrations.

The Democratic candidate's press office said Spanberger "made clear that as Governor, she will always stand up for Virginians’ fundamental freedoms — including for LGBTQ+ Virginians." This sentiment is echoed on her website.

Early voting in Virginia runs until Nov. 1 — Election Day is on Nov. 4.