NORFOLK — Despite being well into hurricane season, the Atlantic has yet to produce a hurricane this year, and a powerful El Niño is largely to blame. [ttt | Outlook]
The same El Niño pattern that has helped generate 10 hurricanes in the Pacific has also increased wind shear across the Atlantic, making it difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen. [ttt | Outlook]
That setup could also shape the upcoming winter in Hampton Roads.
A stronger subtropical jet stream typically brings more storm systems and above-average precipitation to the region. However, El Niño winters also tend to run warmer than normal, often limiting snowfall opportunities. [ttt | Outlook]
While cities farther north, such as Washington and Philadelphia, have often seen snowy El Niño winters, Norfolk's track record is less impressive. During the region's last strong El Niño winter, Norfolk recorded no measurable snowfall. [ttt | Outlook]
The bottom line: Hampton Roads may end up wetter than normal this winter, but whether that translates to snow will depend on having enough cold air in place when storms arrive.
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