NORFOLK, Va. — A small fish is causing a big controversy in local waters — and the outcome could ripple across both the Chesapeake Bay and the Virginia families who depend on it.
A decision that could change the bay
Right now, regulators are wrestling with a question that has no easy answer: how much menhaden should be allowed out of the Chesapeake Bay, and when should fishermen be allowed to catch it?
The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission is considering Draft Addendum II, which has the option to cut the Chesapeake Bay’s industrial fishing cap between 10% and 50%. Other options include tying the Bay's harvest cap directly to a proportion of the coastwide Total Allowable Catch (TAC) and imposing seasonal quotas.
At the heart of the debate is whether to change both how much menhaden can be taken from the bay and when it can be caught. As it stands, the bay cap sits at 51,000 metric tons.
Previous caps were negotiated in 2006, 2013, and 2018.
The commission points to a few warning signs: declining catches among pound-net harvest, a concentration of industrial harvest during the summer months and possible effects on predators.
The little fish everything depends on
To understand why this matters so much, it helps to understand the fish itself. Menhaden may be small and oily, but they play an outsized role in the Chesapeake Bay — essentially serving as the dinner plate for much of the ecosystem.
Will Poston, forage campaign manager with the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, said "just about everything out in the marine ecosystem or the Chesapeake Bay that eats fish very likely relies upon menhaden."
That web of life includes fish like cobia and striped bass, along with osprey, dolphins, and other predators. Conservationists point to data that shows food stress and reproductive problems among ospreys over the last five years.
But menhaden aren't just food for wildlife — they also fuel a major commercial fishery that processes them into fish meal and fish oil.
Two sides, one fish
So, who's right? It depends on whom you ask.
The Chesapeake Bay Foundation believes the warning signs are reason enough to act now — even if the full picture isn't clear yet.
"We're not saying that the fishery is the primary cause for all of these warning signs or the only cause, but we have these warning signs that warrant additional conservation," Poston said.
On the other side, Ocean Harvesters push back, arguing that the warning signs don't actually tell you what's causing them.
"The fishery is taking a very small bite out of the number of fish, which is why we're so confident that we're not harming this biomass at all," Monty Diehl said.
"Our argument is, why make cuts to the fishery to put all these people out of work when you've now funded finally the science to try to determine the real answer to this?"
Ocean Harvesters employs about 500 people – from the fishermen to the people working in the plants, truck drivers, and office workers.
Ocean Harvesters CEO Monty Diehl points to the most recent coastwide stock assessment, which found Atlantic menhaden are not overfished.
What the science can — and can't — tell us
Rob Latour, CSX Professor of Coastal and Marine Sciences at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, clarified a key distinction.
"The most recent stock assessment, again on a coast-wide basis, says no. We don't have any scientific backing to make statements about the Bay itself," Latour said.
In other words, menhaden aren't considered overfished along the coast as a whole. When it comes to the Chesapeake Bay specifically, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science says scientists simply don't have the data to say one way or the other — and that's because the bay never sits still.
"The open nature of the bay being an open system is a huge challenge," Latour said.
"There's a flux in and a flux out, and that changes seasonally, so. It's a bit of a moving target," Latour said.
To close that gap, VIMS is now starting research to better understand how the fish move and how fishing inside the bay affects them.
In the 2026 Virginia General Assembly Session, legislators, backed by Governor Abigail Spanberger, approved $2 million for that research.
A federal spending package also provides $2.5 million through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Latour said researchers will apply for those grants, and the money will be distributed based on that.
In the 1960s, scientists from NOAA at the Beaufort, North Carolina lab conducted a tag recapture study on menhaden where they tagged over 4 years.
"From that we learned a great deal about their early migration, understanding about the movements, the timing of movements," Latour said.
VIMS will do a similar study in partnership with Ocean Harvesters.
"The main wrinkle we're going to introduce is the ability to detect tagged fish on the [Ocean Harvesters] vessels as well as at the plant. So we will tag animals in the environment. We will know where they were tagged. The vessel will have the ability to detect tag fish if they are recaptured, so we will then be able to make inferences about movements and overall impact of fishing in the bay from the reduction fleet and the bait fleet," Latour said.
Work has begun in 2026 and significant information, Latour said, can be collected over a fishing season.
When a paycheck depends on the catch
For the people who make their living on the water, this isn't an abstract policy debate — it's their income and their quality of life.
Kenny Pinkard, a third-generation fisherman, says the math is simple and personal: pay is tied directly to what you catch.
"If you got up from your desk and [you were told] your pay is cut 50%, what is it going to do to your household? Fishermen are paid directly by what they catch," Pinkard said.
The fishery is the main economic driver for the Reedville community.
"Our operation here is larger than the school systems. It's larger than the local governments as far as the money that it puts back into the economy," said Diehl. "These are the only really good jobs in this area that pay very good health benefits, 401k benefits. The people that say they can just do something else, no, they really can't."
However, it's not only the commercial crews feeling the pressure. Charter captains do, too. For Tripp Seed, who runs Bay Roamer charters out of Norfolk, a good day doesn't take much.
"It's no better day than being on the water and catching fish," Seed said.
Lately, though, Seed says that good day is getting harder to come by — because the bait his customers' fish follow isn't as easy to find as it used to be.
"I've been out there numerous times where I went to an area where there's an abundance of bait and I go back there the next day and it's all gone," Seed said.
"We have a good cobia fishery here in Chesapeake Bay, but there has been a decline over the last, I'll say 10 years to be, you know, to be safe on that.”
For him, the stakes come down to family.
"Just like those guys' livelihood up there is to catch them, it's our livelihood too. I use this as part of my income to support my family," Seed said.
"I do know people that are getting out of the charter business because of how hard it is."
A quota that tells two stories
In 2025, Ocean Harvesters did not meet their quota — but the two sides can't agree on why.
Critics say it's because the bay has been overfished and there was no menhaden left. Ocean Harvesters and VIMS, meanwhile, say bad weather simply limited how many days they could fish.
A decision the public is watching closely
If the flood of feedback is any measure, a lot of people are paying attention to how this plays out.
According to the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, "a total of 48,282 comments were received on Draft Addendum II from individual comments, organizations, and form letters. Among them, 56 organizations submitted comments, and 5 organization letters included supporting signatories — including one with 54 signatories, another with 21, one with 15 and two letters with two apiece.
The bulk of that response came through form letters, with 43,166 comments submitted across 19 of them. Another 7 letters, carrying a total of 44 signatories, came from county, state, and federal government representatives. The remaining 4,921 comments came from individuals — private anglers, charter captains, commercial fishermen and concerned citizens. Of those, 2,400 (49%) arrived via email or webpage comment box, while 2,521 (51%) came through the comment survey.
People didn't just write in, either. The commission says 7 public hearings were held from September 15 through October 1, 2026 — three in person only, one in a hybrid format and three via webinar only. All told, 861 individuals turned out, not counting state staff, ASMFC staff, or commissioners and proxies, with some attending more than one."
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