NORFOLK, Va. — Democrats and Republicans are hoping to gain momentum in Virginia’s upcoming governor's race.
With organizers working to sell their vision to voter's across the commonwealth, we wanted to see what lessons both sides have learned from the 2024 general election that swept President Trump back into office — and gave Republicans control of the Senate and House.
Virginia and New Jersey are the only states holding governor's elections in 2025. These races can forecast political trends ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, and even the far-out 2028 general election.
Watch: Virginia governor's race candidates share stances on public safety, labor unions
“I believe the commonwealth of Virginia is going to be the ultimate litmus test for both parties,” said Dr. Eric Claville, a political analyst and Norfolk State University professor.
To keep things local, we decided to pour through election data in News 3's hometown, Norfolk. These data points might not show monumental changes, but they can identify local patterns that are reflected in nationwide trends.
The Mermaid City has maintained a sturdy Democratic voting base since the 1970s, but it's important to note that voters are never a monolith. Because, a different story emerges after a closer look — especially when reviewing data from the 2024 election.
Watch: Recapping Virginia's 2025 Primary Election Day
Claville says Democrats are expected to secure plenty of votes from dense urban spaces like Norfolk — and they did in 2024.
Norfolk 2024 presidential election results:
- Kamala Harris (D): 59,941 (69.45%)
- Donald Trump (R): 24,337 (28.24%)
- Other candidates: 1,691 (1.96%)
Norfolk 2024 congressional election results:
- Bobby Scott (D): 61,429 (71.17%)
- John Sitka III (R): 22,874 (26.5%)
- Other candidates: 206 (0.24%)
There was a notable shift in the votes, with Kamala Harris receiving nearly 4,500 fewer than her predecessor, Joe Biden, did in 2020. On the other hand, Trump's support in Norfolk saw a less significant change, gaining just over 900 votes in 2024.
Norfolk 2020 presidential election results:
- Joe Biden (D): 64,440 (71.43%)
- Donald Trump (R): 23,443 (25.99%)
- Other candidates: 1,998 (2.21%)
This dip in Democratic votes can likely be attributed to the overall voter turnout being lower in 2024. Nearly 4,000 fewer people voted in that election despite Norfolk gaining around 8,000 registered voters.
2020/2024 Norfolk election turnout:
- 2020: 90,213 out of 136,595 registered voters (66.04%)
- 2024: 86,308 out of 144,115 registered voters (59.89%)
The COVID-19 pandemic certainly contributed to the higher turnout in 2020. However, this explanation could broadly disregard other data points, such as the overall uptick in registered voters reported in the 2024 election.
This trend brings to mind a common election cycle buzzword: The "undecided voter."
Many hearing this term would think it represents a voter who is torn between choosing Republican or Democrat. However, in reality, Claville says an undecided voter is really someone who is choosing between going to the polls or staying at home.
Some have argued that Democrats failed to convince people to get off the couch and vote in 2024.
Norfolk GOP organizer Raymarie Rowzie agrees, and she hopes to capitalize on that in upcoming elections, especially the high-stakes 2025 race.
“I'm very motivated, very energized to ride this wave and to see our city become a much better city,” Rowzie told News 3.
Rowzie was a Democrat until 2016. She hopes to inspire more Norfolk voters to make a similar change in party affiliation.
“I found that the Democrat Party was no longer representing me and people in our area as best as they could,” Rowzie said. "I felt as though they had their own interests in mind, and the more I became involved with the Republican Party, I saw that they were listening and incorporating grassroots efforts into their approach to politics and their policies, and that is what appealed to me."
Democratic Party organizers like Yvonne Wagner understand Rowzie's sentiment about grassroots organizing. She does believe that more time should be invested in boots-on-the-ground canvassing in the lead up to the 2025 election.
“Grassroots is definitely the way to go. Even though we have lots of technology, there's nothing like boots on the ground and meeting people where they are — so that's the biggest difference,” Wagner said.
Wagner, also a Norfolk native, believes the Trump administration’s actions will galvanize the Democratic voter base in the upcoming election — her theory could hold some water.
Watch: New VCU poll shows Spanberger widening double-digit lead in Virginia governor's race
A poll recently conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University shows Democratic candidates outperforming their GOP competitors across the statewide ticket. For the governor's race, Spanberger's polling lead over Earle-Sears widened to 12%.
It should be noted, 47% of independents surveyed in the VCU poll were still "undecided" about the statewide ticket.
Wagner also mentioned that public demonstrations are the best way to encourage turnout and action — take, for example, the "No Kings" Protests that swept Hampton Roads in June.
“Protest makes a difference because when you see a crowd of people together, people want to know — especially young people — what's going on, and they want to be a part of it, so the big crowds speak a language,” Wagner said.
Watch: Mile-long stretch of people march along Hampton Blvd. on 'No Kings Day'
A key aspect of an organizer's job is to create a big tent of support. Encouraging diverse groups of people to understand a shared vision.
“We are so unique and different that we all have different experiences, and it's about finding commonality. I think that politics can be that,” Rowzie said.
“You have the sororities; the Divine 9 is heavy in this area," Wagner said "You've got the unions here; you've got the big ILA that's really important; you've got the shipyard, so you've got kind of a cosmopolitan base."
Whether they’re military, students, or port workers, Wagner and Rowzie both understand the needs of local voters. Most of an organizer’s work revolves around messaging and connecting with community pillars.
That first test will come this November when voters head to the polls to decide whether to give Earle-Sears a shot at the state house, or hand the governorship back to Democrats in the hands of Abigail Spanberger.
